While the Americans are arranging provocations for the Russian military in Syria, foreign experts are assuring the world that Moscow has taken Syria from the West. “Nobody expected Russians” here, “Assad himself”, and he was “surprised”. Therefore, Russia will have to "pay" for Syria.
The United States is organizing dangerous provocations for the Russian military in Syria, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said in an interview with Ash Sharq al-Awsat. The tactics of half-measures and double standards used by the United States in Syria are of serious concern to Russia, the channel reports.
Lavrov explained that the American tactic is to divide terrorists into "bad" and "not very bad", in politically motivated decisions related to the coalition and in ignoring the decisions of the UN Security Council.
“They will allegedly accidentally strike at the Syrian Armed Forces, after which the ISIS go on a counterattack, then they incite other terrorists to strategically important points where the legitimate authority of official Damascus was restored, then they will arrange deadly dangerous provocations against our military personnel.”
Lavrov also recalled that, according to international law, the presence of the US-led coalition in Syria is illegal, since the government did not invite these forces.
The “provocations” mentioned by S. Lavrov, as well as the “serious concern” of Russia, are accompanied by complaints from foreign experts that Moscow has taken Syria away from the West.
Australian Middle East expert Roger Shanahan of the Lowy Institute explained the change that has come to Syria since the arrival of Russian military forces.
His vision of the situation is as follows.
1. At the moment when armed forces As the US-led coalition headed for Syria, it was already clear that the Assad regime was about to end.
2. Assad, who committed "many crimes during the civil war", was ready to go to any lengths to maintain power: "He even gave some disputed areas to his opponents so that they would not continue the offensive."
3. At the same time, Assad was not a supporter of peace. He relied on strength.
4. Iran constantly sent him "thousands of soldiers." But Assad "requested Iran's full participation in the war." They refused: it was "very dangerous."
5. If foreigners had not intervened, the end of Assad would have been close. But the United States announced the beginning of the war against terrorists. And the first thing they did was not Assad, but the "Islamic State" (ISIS, ISIS, banned in Russia). This is what saved B. Assad.
6. And then "Russia came to his aid." “Nobody was expecting her here, probably even Assad himself was surprised,” the expert comments on the appearance of Russians in the country.
To the remark of the journalist, “Bashar al-Assad personally asked the Russian Federation to come to the aid in the fight against terrorism. He was hardly surprised.” Roger Shanahan responded with a historical argument: “In the 60s, Castro asked Khrushchev to launch a nuclear attack on the United States, but no one did.”
Russia in Syria had to tell the United States that it had its own interests here: “After a series of failures in agreements with the leaders of the Arab states, Russia could not leave Syria. She lost Hussein, whom she called a friend, she lost Gaddafi, who was friends with Putin. Each time Russia protested, but no one listened to her. But now Moscow has begun to speak louder and more impressively. Now she doesn't just talk, she does. This is a big policy, in which there is no place for the pain and suffering of the Syrian people, this is the last thing everyone thinks about.”
According to the expert, Russian aircraft caused great damage to Syria. Proof: "... everyone knows this." But in this way Russia "was able to regain the status of a superpower."
Finally, Russia liberated almost all of Syria for Assad, and now "Assad - big man". If before Assad was wanted to be killed in the West, now "his officials are negotiating with the US military." The only threat to B. Assad, the expert believes, is the Kurds. That's why the US supports them. But the Kurds will also have to negotiate with Assad: Syria, recognized by the UN, has no other president.
Outcome: Russia "turned out to be the first, she took Syria for herself." And this is a defeat for Washington, which "will have to be recognized."
Another analyst, Richard Frank, also from Australia (military expert, specialist analyzing international relationships), went even further: he believes that Moscow will have to pay for Syria.
He believes that the actions of the Russian military forces in Syria lead to casualties and destruction. “After Russian planes, there are almost no buildings left in cities. Who will restore all this? Assad will not have enough oil for which he is fighting and which he already has. Russia will have to restore the country itself. This is not humanitarian aid, but tens of billions of dollars. This issue needs to be raised at the UN,” he said.
As a sad example, a military expert cited the city of Aleppo. Nobody started to restore it. And if so, Russia “should pay” for what it did in the country:
“What about Aleppo? Has anyone started rebuilding it? No, Russia is busy with other things. She has so many problems of her own that she can offer nothing but war, but she must pay for what she did in Syria.”
Otherwise, the operation in Syria is assessed by Russian experts. The very first thing that catches your eye is the specifics in the assessments.
In the Moscow edition took place round table dedicated to the second anniversary of the start of the Russian military campaign in the SAR. counter-terrorist operation Russian troops over two years has led to a radical change in the balance of power in Syria.
In particular, A.P. Leonkov, a military expert, one of the leaders of the Arsenal of the Fatherland magazine, recalled with reference to the data of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation that in these two years over 30,000 sorties were carried out and 90,000 strikes were carried out against militants. The contribution of the Russian Aerospace Forces is estimated at 55% of the destroyed equipment and infrastructure of gangs.
In 2015, the main targets for Russian military aviation were the IG oil business. At that time, 70% of the territory of Syria was under the control of the "caliphate". In 2015, more than 2,500 tanks were destroyed for the transportation of "black gold", thanks to which the terrorist group was financed. Explored objects were destroyed separately: camps, places of concentration of equipment. Over 5,000 sorties were flown in 2015. The main load fell on the Su-25 and Su-24. New items were also used: Su-34 and Su-30SM. Aviation operations were carried out in the area of the cities of Hama, Homs, Aleppo and Daraa. IS oil facilities were also destroyed: over 300 oil refineries and stations were destroyed.
In 2016, the Russian group was changed as a result of rotation. Helicopters were added to it (Mi-24, Mi-35, Ka-52, Mi-28). The effectiveness of helicopters has been proven. Basically, they tried to destroy equipment at night. That year, the main blows were delivered against the military infrastructure of ISIS and Jabhat al-Nusra (banned in the Russian Federation). In 2016, the main task of the Aerospace Forces was the destruction of key fortified areas. Cities and entire territories were liberated.
Through the Syrian campaign, the expert notes, "were skipped" almost all types of aircraft that the Russian Federation has in service, with the exception of MiG and Yak-130 aircraft. “Therefore, our VKS received that practical experience, that very combat training, which is very difficult to create in a training ground,” says Leonkov.
In general, the expert assessed the contribution of the Aerospace Forces to the operation in Syria as significant.
Russia is strong, and Syria is saved - this is the leitmotif of the assessments of all experts summing up the results of the two-year Syrian campaign.
Obviously, we note that the views of foreign and Russian experts are essentially opposite: in Russia they talk about the destruction of terrorists, abroad they tend to accuse Moscow of almost invading Syria and achieving their own goals there, which Assad himself allegedly was unspeakably surprised. Hence the logic: the Russians will have to "pay" for Syria! After all, it was they who destroyed it: Russian aircraft caused great damage, "everyone knows this." The American coalition is portrayed as the savior of Syria from terrorism and even the savior of Assad.
Probably no one will be surprised (and Assad too) that on the pages of American textbooks the latest
Observation in real combat conditions has changed the idea of the Pentagon generals about the Russian Aerospace Forces
From 1 to 8 September, the Russian Navy and the Russian Aerospace Forces conducted large-scale naval exercises in the Mediterranean Sea near Syria. According to the Russian Defense Ministry, significant forces were involved in them: 26 warships, submarines and support vessels, led by the missile cruiser Marshal Ustinov, supported by the large anti-submarine ship Severomorsk. 34 aircraft take off into the sky, including Tu-160, Tu-142MK, Il-38, Su-33 and Su-30SM.
Despite the fact that the zones covered by the exercises were declared in advance dangerous for navigation and flights, NATO ships and aircraft conducted the closest monitoring of the maneuvers. In general, the Pentagon does not hide that it captures and analyzes every step Russian army in the Syrian conflict. For this, two thousand US military specialists were sent to the combat zone. By the way, they use the militants as guinea pigs, imposing certain operations in order to assess the opposition from our side.
According to the mouthpiece of the Pentagon The Defense News, Washington and Moscow are using Syria and how test site for their latest weapons, and as an opportunity to see the capabilities of a potential enemy up close. Both countries are now voraciously studying each other.
In an interview with The Defense News, Lieutenant General Jeffrey Harrigian, the outgoing head of the US Air Force Central Command, said: “Of course, we learned a lot about the capabilities of the combat aircraft and Special Operations Forces that the Russians brought to Syria. It is very clear to me that Moscow has used Syria as a way to look at its troops and understand where they really are. Not only from the point of view of weapons systems, but also from the standpoint of evaluating their soldiers and officers (receiving combat experience - ed.) ".
Overseas specialists were especially interested in Russian Su-34 and Su-35 fighters. For the first time, the Americans observed our "dryers" in real combat conditions, using not only ground services, but also the latest F-35B vehicles, including Israeli ones, which appeared in the area of responsibility of the US Central Command. It was extremely important for them to find out how effective the tracking systems of the 5th generation systems are for the operational environment in which Russian pilots fly on elite aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces.
Jeffrey Harrigian called the F-35B a data vacuum, but acknowledged that the aircraft urgently needed to be improved, along with other US Air Force combat assets. According to the general, "software changes and other things" are required in order to return the F-35B to undeniable air superiority as quickly as possible. Allegedly, if this is done, the fighter will be the key to any future operation in which the Americans and Russians will be involved.
In the meantime, the Yankees are again looking with hope at the F-22 fighters, which until recently were called "the oldest." The other day, the Raptor with the number 91-4006, sent in 2012 for conservation, urgently returned from the warehouse hangar. 6 years ago, it was decided not to upgrade the car at all because of the incredible high cost of the necessary updates. In fact, board 91-4006 was sent to the "eternal parking".
This was reported by the Pentagon portal Military.com, which called the unexpected return of the Raptor an incredibly expensive pleasure. The US defense department declined to name the costs of reopening, repairing and installing new systems so as not to shock taxpayers. If in 2012 the head was spinning from the estimate, now even more so. To estimate the costs incurred by the Pentagon, the portal emphasized that "in 2009, the cost of the F-22 was about $150 million, but according to some estimates, today it is closer to $250 million at current prices." In short, it is a forced measure.
Regarding Moscow's benefits from the conflict in Syria, General Harrigian said: “The Russian military has benefited significantly from monitoring US troops. One of the key examples was the case of the F-22, the main air superiority fighter of the US Air Force, which Russian specialists filmed during the flight and attack on targets. High Quality.
In this regard, US Air Force Lieutenant General Vera Lynn Jameson in January 2018 did not hide her disappointment that the F-22 operations in Syria gave Russian experts a unique opportunity to study in real time how the Raptor works. She stated: “The skies over Iraq and in particular over Syria have really become a treasure trove for them. Our enemies are watching us, they are learning from us."
The Americans are confident that this information will certainly help the Russian budget save trillions of rubles, as Russian designers will make major adjustments to the Raptor analogue, the Su-57. For where Lockheed Martin, Boeing and General Dynamics have been going through a difficult and long route of costly trial and error, the Sukhoi Design Bureau will spend very little time and money.
The Russians should give special thanks to the Pentagon for valuable American equipment, namely the Tomahawk and AGM-158 JASSM cruise missiles, which did not explode during attacks on Syrian government positions in April 2018 and were delivered to Russia for study. This opinion was published by the authoritative magazine Military Watch.
In addition, The Defense News notes "a clear pattern from the side of Russian forces". It turns out that the Russians are promptly making positive changes in their practices, including after American military operations. For overseas high-ranking generals (who Lately in the USA they began to call the Pentagon Cardinals - ed.), this was an unpleasant revelation. After all, they perceived the US Army as a dynamically learning organization capable of quickly responding to new exports. And here "some Ivans from Siberia" also do not slow down with conclusions.
In particular, Pentagon defense planners noted a significant improvement and reduction in the cost of military logistics in the Russian army for the delivery of weapons, personnel and other supplies. The Americans are confident that our military "peeped" how the specialized services of the US Army do it, and adapted the valuable experience to their capabilities. This also changes their perception of Russians as a nation as a whole.
Be that as it may, General Jeffrey Harrigian is extremely happy that our troops are participating in the Syrian campaign, as they "have provided the United States military with an invaluable opportunity to gain valuable information about Moscow's defense capabilities."
On the one hand, the Pentagon cardinals today, with a clear conscience, call the Russian Federation a state with one of the best and high-tech military-industrial complex in the world, thereby substantiating the need for increased defense spending with concrete facts. But just recently, President Obama categorically did not believe in a strong Russian army and even sequestered the military spending of the United States.
On the other hand, the overseas establishment has moved from a dangerous display of muscles to a sanctions policy. This means that the pentagonal headquarters of the US Department of Defense has become much calmer. Congressmen and the White House no longer bombard the defense department with idiotic requests to once again assess the consequences of the war with Russia. They now know exactly what to do.
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On February 7, American aircraft hit the Syrian government forces, which were supported by fighters from Russian private military companies.
Government troops in the area locality Hisham was attacked by fighters of the Syrian Democratic Forces (DSS), an alliance of Kurdish and Arab groups supported by the United States. By the time of the attack, not only the Kurds, but also the Americans were in positions. They requested air support - the advancing units were subjected to massive air and artillery fire. The Americans even used AC-130 fire support aircraft armed with cannons, bombs and missiles. The Kurds also fired mercilessly.
Kurdish commanders say they tried to avoid fighting
One of the leaders of the DSS, General Hassan, told his version of events to The Washington Post. According to him, intelligence warned of an impending attack, and at 21:30 local time he got in touch with a representative of Russian forces in the city of Deir ez-Zor. He informed the interlocutor that the Kurds would like to avoid a fight; those in response said that no battle was planned.
The American command made an attempt to avoid conflict with the forces of Damascus and Moscow
“Representatives of the coalition were in constant contact with their Russian counterparts before, during and after the attack. Representatives of the Russian side assured that they would not attack the coalition forces," Thomas Veal, spokesman for the US-led coalition, told CNN.
Nevertheless, the fight still took place.
According to the Americans, the advancing units crossed the Euphrates River, which separates the zones of control, and advanced eight kilometers deep. “20 to 30 artillery and tank shells exploded within 500 meters, after which US-backed fighters and coalition forces launched air and artillery strikes against the aggressors,” Veal said. The US estimated that more than 100 advancing soldiers were killed.
Russia and the United States differed in their assessment of what is happening
“The incident has once again demonstrated that the true goal of continuing the illegal presence of US forces in Syria is not to fight the international terrorist group ISIS, but to seize and hold under its control economic assets belonging only to the Syrian Arab Republic,” the statement said. Russian ministry defense and reported 25 wounded Syrian militias. The United States, in turn, suggested that Assad's troops wanted to seize the Koneko oil and gas fields controlled by the Kurds, and therefore decided to attack. US Secretary of Defense James Mattis believes that it is unfair to blame Russia for what happened. According to him, the Russian side clearly stated that its forces were not there, so it was unacceptable to demand from it to stop the attackers: "You cannot calm down what you do not control."
Leaders of Russia, Iran and Turkey Vladimir Putin, Hassan Rouhani And Recep Tayyip Erdogan at the summit in Tehran, they decided the fate of Syria, stating the main thing - this country cannot be deprived of its sovereignty, especially under the guise of fighting terrorism. And Damascus, of course, has its main hopes for Moscow in this regard. Above all, it must not allow Syria to be torn to pieces. And so it would have been, if not for our military ...
But a few years ago, for many, military participation Russian Federation in Syrian civil war came as a complete surprise.
Moscow, of course, defended the Syrian president with all diplomatic methods - it vetoed anti-Assad initiatives at the UN, criticized Western countries for their aggressive attacks on Damascus, actively participated in the chemical disarmament of the Arab Republic, and so on. But all this did not portend military intervention. What's so amazing about that? Before that, Russia condemned the war in Iraq, and our politicians sent words of support to Saddam Hussein. Then it was the turn Muammar al-Gaddafi. He was a friend to us, in any case, so far it is customary for us to remember his death as a tragic event. We also supported him diplomatically, but when the war began, he was left alone against everyone - against internal enemies and against Western invaders.
It seemed to many that Bashar Assad will repeat the fate of two notorious Arab leaders, despite all the efforts of Moscow. And what to hide - he was close to it. The part of the country controlled by him was rapidly shrinking until it turned into a narrow strip in the west of the country with Damascus on the very front line. In the United States, and in our country too, many predicted the inevitable fall of the capital. However Putin made up his mind.
Our military went to the Syrian Arab Republic and that changed everything. Assad is saved and triumphant, and all his haters are literally broken. And most of all they were surprised by the unexpected reaction of Russia. In general, at that moment, at the moment, perhaps, the highest intensity in relations with Obama States, the Kremlin has shown strength and made it clear that it is on the verge of becoming a superpower. But that's how it seemed in 2015.
And now, three years later, the Russian campaign in Syria is perceived as something quite ordinary, both in the West, among competitors, and within our country. And when the delight and amazement completely faded, questions about the rationality of our actions in the SAR began abruptly. Like, now we are doing everything right - we are restoring the rule of law, asserting our authority, and so on, but what are we going to do next?
The result, God forbid, will be good, but sooner or later the military will have to be returned from their first real foreign war (call the war in South Ossetia foreign somehow does not work - auth.). The President of the Russian Federation reassured everyone. First, he brought out one part of the military, then another. And this was done almost immediately after the West began to prophesy a "second Afghanistan" - it was argued that Moscow would "get stuck" in Syria. Again managed to surprise everyone. And this is all great, only to this day our soldiers are still fighting for Assad and, most likely, they will reach the end with him on the road to complete victory. How long will it take our military to go to it?
Australian expert Richard Frank believes that the withdrawal of our troops has been agreed with the United States of America. As if the states agreed on a systematic reduction of their contingents in Syria.
- Surely Russia wants the US to leave Syria, just as the US wants to disarm Russia here. Previously, this was almost impossible. Because each of them claimed sole dominance. No one can be blamed for this, because such claims were justified for both powers. There was such an opportunity. But today it is already obvious that in the coming years no one will be able to completely take this region under their control. Since war is impossible - and it is impossible, because we are talking about the two largest military forces in the world - of course, we have to negotiate. I am sure that the territories have already been divided. Euphrates, being geographical border, also performs well as a political. According to him, the section was made. I think before we meet Trump with Putin, everything was already certain. They just fixed it. The plan is to reduce the number of military personnel from both countries. Russia has already withdrawn some of them, but this is not much. The main forces remained. I think that after the Idlib story is over, more serious changes await us. First, Russia will participate in the gradual reduction of the influence of Iran and Hezbollah in Syria. This is necessary, otherwise the US and Israel will not stick to the agreements.
SP: And then what?
- Then the stage of negotiations between the regime and the Democratic Union (the Kurdish party ruling in the north of Syria, which controls the People's Protection Units - ed.) and the parties forming a coalition with it (with the Democratic Union - ed.) will begin. If there is success, then for Russia and the United States this war will end. But before the end of the negotiations, the parties are needed in order to reduce the possibility of a confrontation between the Kurds and Assad. This does not require a large contingent. Probably enough, and hundreds of people from each side. There is no absolute certainty about anything, but it will probably end in 2020, if not earlier. Now, against the backdrop of these diplomatic achievements, the main thing is to be able to keep the factors of Turkey and Iran within certain limits. There are others, but with them it will be easier.
Syrian news: Terrorists attacked the positions of Syrian troops in the Palmyra region
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