Olga Sidorova
My new hobby, which has already become a tradition, is making educational games for preschoolers with my own hands from textiles. (felt) .
I really enjoy making these games. This time I got such a multi-colored pyramid.
It is also made from felt. Filled with padding polyester, this time I processed the edges not by hand, but on a typewriter, by my assistant.
It consists of 5 parts, evenly reducing.
Velcro tape is sewn on each part for a secure connection.
I think it makes no sense to write about the goals and objectives of such a game, because everyone already knows everyone. pyramids there are a great many on store shelves, but there are only a few made by hand, but they are easy to manufacture, so go for it.
Related publications:
A child is a little man who constantly studies, comprehends the world. Didactic games play an important role in our work.
I am sharing with you a great idea (borrowed from our colleague, but in my performance) that is quite simple to manufacture and an interesting game.
Material: felt, buttons, Velcro, buttons, faux fur, sequins. The manual is multifunctional. Educational integration.
I present to your attention didactic game for children 4 - 5 years old "Pockets with a surprise". Purpose: To improve tactile sensations in children.
Eco-developing environment is a developing subject environment, which can be used for educational and recreational purposes.
The children who came to kindergarten at the age of 2-3 years, fine motor skills of the hands are very poorly developed and sensory concepts are practically not formed.
Every year, at the level of the municipal Lyambirsky district, the Ponoroshkin World competition is held, for the manufacture teaching aids, didactic,.
Pyramids... MK and ideas.OPTION #1
Such a toy will help in the study of the colors of the spectrum, large - small, counting, contributes to the development fine motor skills. To make a pyramid, you will need: felt sheets 2-3 mm thick or fleece patches of different colors; Velcro tape 2 cm wide - cut 10 cm; synthetic winterizer or holofiber for stuffing; threads in color; ruler; scissors; chalk or fabric marker; pins.
Open the pyramids:
From each color of felt, you need to cut out 2 identical squares with a side length of 4, 5, 6.7, 8, 9 cm. Cut the Velcro tape into 2x2 cm squares.
Sew a piece of Velcro with hooks into the center of the red square, sew the other half of the Velcro with loops into the center of the purple square. Sew pieces of Velcro in pairs on all other parts. It is desirable to sew the soft part of the Velcro on all the upper parts of the squares, and the hard part of the Velcro on all the lower parts of the squares.
Fold squares of felt of the same color with Velcro outward and sew with a straight line, stepping back 2 mm from the edge, leaving an unsewn area for stuffing with padding polyester.
Through open area fill the workpiece with synthetic winterizer in the seam and sew up the hole in the resulting pad.
The largest pillow can be filled (in the photo it is red) with peas or cereals - for greater stability of the finished toy.
Sew all 6 pads in the same way and connect them with Velcro.
The pyramid is ready, you can play!
These are 9 figures - 3 circles, 3 squares and 3 triangles, sewn from fabrics of 3 primary colors of the spectrum. All parts can be sorted and assembled into 3 pyramids according to different criteria:
- In shape - square, triangular and round (moreover, all 3 colors are represented in each pyramid),
- By color - yellow, blue and red (each pyramid contains all 3 forms geometric shapes),
- In size - large, medium, small (in each pyramid there are 3 forms of geometric shapes of different colors).
1 square - there is a pocket with a zipper for storing removable figures, and a pocket in which a ladybug is hiding.
2 square - removable parts made of felt, fastened with buttons of different colors. It is necessary to choose a button for each figure by color.
3 square - rattle.
4 square - filler (rustling)
5 square - a flower on a button
A good helper in the study of colors will be this multi-colored pyramid. Pyramid pads rustle, are connected to each other by buttons.
OPTION #2
Made of fleece, stuffed with padding polyester, the bottom ring rustles, inside there is a parallon for the shape, the bottom ring is glued to the stick. In the stick there is a synthetic winterizer and 2 plastic sticks from the flag for the form. In the upper cap there is a synthetic winterizer and a bag with beads, a bell is sewn on, sewn with a decorative stitch. The cap is put on the pyramid with a magnet. Height 35 cm
The pyramid consists of a base and 6 rings made of materials of different textures. A chicken's head is put on top. The height is 26 cm, the diameter of the lower ring is 16 cm. The rings can be used as teethers, each has either beads or ribbons.
author Ksenia
Doctor of Physical and Mathematical Sciences B. LUCHKOV, professor at MEPhI.
The sun is an ordinary star, not distinguished by its properties and position from a myriad of stars milky way. in terms of luminosity, size, mass, it is a typical middle peasant. It occupies the same middle place in the Galaxy: not close to the center, not on the edge, but in the middle, both in the thickness of the disk and in the radius (8 kiloparsecs from the galactic core). the only, one must think, difference from most stars is that life arose on the third planet of the vast economy of the Galaxy 3 billion years ago and, having undergone a number of changes, survived, giving rise to the thinking creature homo sapiens on the evolutionary path. a person who is searching and inquisitive, having populated the whole earth, is now engaged in the study of the world around him in order to know “what”, “how” and “why”. what, for example, determines the earth's climate, how is the earth's weather formed, and why does it change so abruptly and sometimes unpredictably? These questions seem to have received well-founded answers long ago. and over the past half century, thanks to global studies of the atmosphere and the ocean, an extensive meteorological service has been created, without reports of which now neither a housewife going to the market, nor an airplane pilot, nor a climber, nor a plowman, nor a fisherman can do - absolutely no one. it’s just noticed that sometimes the forecasts go wrong, and then the housewives, pilots, climbers, not to mention the plowmen and fishermen, vilify the weather service for how much in vain. this means that everything is not yet completely clear in the weather kitchen, and one should carefully understand the complex synoptic phenomena and relationships. One of the main ones is the earth-sun connection, which gives us warmth and light, but from which hurricanes, droughts, floods and other extreme “weathers” sometimes break free, like from a pandora's box. what gives rise to these “dark forces” of the earth's climate, which is generally quite pleasant compared to what is happening on other planets?
The coming years lurk in the mist.
A. Pushkin
CLIMATE AND WEATHER
Earth's climate is determined by two main factors: the solar constant and the inclination of the Earth's axis of rotation to the plane of the orbit. Solar constant - the flux of solar radiation coming to Earth, 1.4 . 10 3 W/m 2 is indeed unchanged with high accuracy (up to 0.1%) both in short (seasons, years) and long (centuries, millions of years) scales. The reason for this is the constancy of the solar luminosity L = 4 . 10 26 W, determined by the thermonuclear “burning” of hydrogen in the center of the Sun, and the almost circular orbit of the Earth (R= 1,5 . 10 11 m). The “middle” position of the luminary makes its character surprisingly tolerable - no changes in luminosity and solar radiation flux, no changes in temperature of the photosphere. Calm, balanced star. And the climate of the Earth is therefore strictly defined - hot in the equatorial zone, where the sun is at its zenith almost every day, moderately warm in the middle latitudes and cold near the poles, where it barely protrudes from the horizon.
Another thing is the weather. In each latitudinal zone, it manifests itself as a certain deviation from the established climatic standard. There is also a thaw in winter and buds swell on the trees. It happens that at the height of summer bad weather will come with a piercing autumn wind, and sometimes snowfall. Weather is a specific realization of the climate of a given latitude with possible (in Lately very frequent) deviations-anomalies.
MODEL PREDICTIONS
Weather anomalies are very harmful, they cause great damage. Floods, droughts, severe winters destroyed agriculture, led to famine and epidemics. Storms, hurricanes, heavy rains also did not spare anything in their path, forcing people to leave the devastated places. The victims of weather anomalies are innumerable. It is impossible to subdue the weather, to mitigate its extreme manifestations. The energy of weather disruptions is not subject even now, in an energetically developed time, when gas, oil, uranium gave us great power over nature. The energy of an average hurricane (10 17 J) is equal to the total output of all power plants in the world in three hours. Unsuccessful attempts to stop the impending bad weather were made in the last century. In the 1980s, a frontal attack on hurricanes was carried out by the US Air Force (Operation Storm Fury), but they showed only their complete impotence (Science and Life, No. ).
Yet science and technology have been able to help. If it is impossible to contain the blows of the enraged elements, then perhaps it will be possible at least to foresee them in order to take timely measures. Weather development models began to develop, especially successfully with the introduction of modern computers. The most powerful computers, the most complex calculation programs now belong to weather forecasters and the military. The results were not long in coming.
By the end of the last century, calculations based on synoptic models had reached such a level of perfection that they began to describe well the processes occurring in the ocean (the main factor in terrestrial weather), on land, in the atmosphere, including its lower layer, the troposphere, the weather factory. A very good agreement was reached between the calculation of the main weather factors (air temperature, the content of CO 2 and other "greenhouse" gases, heating of the surface layer of the ocean) with real measurements. Above are plots of calculated and measured temperature anomalies over a century and a half.
Such models can be trusted - they have become a working tool for weather forecasting. Weather anomalies (their strength, place, moment of occurrence), it turns out, can be predicted. This means that there is time and opportunity to prepare for the strikes of the elements. Forecasts have become commonplace, and the damage caused by weather anomalies has been drastically reduced.
A special place was occupied by long-term forecasts, for tens and hundreds of years, as a guide to action for economists, politicians, heads of production - “captains” modern world. Several long-term forecasts for the 21st century are now known.
WHAT IS THE COMING CENTURY PREPARING FOR US?
The forecast for such a long period, of course, can only be approximate. Weather parameters are presented with significant tolerances (error intervals, as is customary in mathematical statistics). To take into account all the possibilities of the future, a number of development scenarios are being played out. The Earth's climate system is too unstable, even the best models, tested on tests of past years, can make miscalculations when referring to the distant future.
The calculation algorithms are based on two opposite assumptions: 1) a gradual change in weather factors (optimistic option), 2) their sharp jump, leading to noticeable climate changes (pessimistic option).
The Gradual Climate Change Forecast of the 21st Century (“Intergovernmental Commission on Climate Change Working Group Report”, Shanghai, January 2001) presents the results of seven model scenarios. The main conclusion is that the warming of the Earth, which covered the entire last century, will continue further, accompanied by an increase in the emission of "greenhouse gases" (mainly CO 2 and SO 2), an increase in surface air temperature (by 2-6 ° C by the end of the new century) and sea level rise (on average 0.5 m per century). Some scenarios give a decline in emissions of "greenhouse gases" in the second half of the century as a result of the ban on industrial emissions into the atmosphere, their concentration will not differ much from the current level. The most likely changes in weather factors are higher maximum temperatures and more hot days, less low minimum temperatures and fewer frosty days in almost all regions of the earth, reduced temperature dispersion, more intense precipitation. Possible climate changes are more summer dry spells with a noticeable risk of droughts, stronger winds and greater intensity of tropical cyclones.
The past five years filled with severe anomalies (dreaded North Atlantic hurricanes, Pacific typhoons keeping up with them, the harsh winter of 2006 in the Northern Hemisphere and other weather surprises) show that the new century does not seem to have taken an optimistic path. Of course, the century has just begun, deviations from the predicted gradual development can be smoothed out, but its “stormy start” gives reason to doubt the first option.
THE 21st CENTURY SCENARIO OF CLIMATE CHANGE (P. SCHWARTZ, D. RANDELL, OCTOBER 2003)
This is not just a forecast, this is a shake-up - a wake-up call for the "captains" of the world, reassured by gradual climate change: it can always be corrected small funds(by protocols-conversations) in the right direction, and you can not be afraid that the situation will get out of control. The new forecast proceeds from the outlined tendency of growth of extreme natural anomalies. They think it's starting to come true. The world has gone down a pessimistic path.
The first decade (2000-2010) is a continuation of gradual warming, which does not yet cause much concern, but still with a noticeable acceleration rate. North America, Europe, partially South Africa will have 30% more warm and less frosty days, the number and intensity of weather anomalies (floods, droughts, hurricanes) that will affect agriculture will increase. Nevertheless, such weather cannot be considered particularly severe, threatening the world order.
But by 2010, such a number of dangerous changes will have accumulated that will lead to a sharp jump in climate in a completely unforeseen (according to the gradual version) direction. The hydrological cycle (evaporation, precipitation, water leakage) will accelerate, which will further increase the average air temperature. Water vapor is a powerful natural "greenhouse gas". Due to the increase in the average surface temperature, forests and pastures will dry up, massive forest fires will begin (it is already clear how difficult it is to fight them). The concentration of CO 2 will increase so much that the usual absorption by ocean water and land plants, which determined the rate of "gradual change", will no longer work. The greenhouse effect will pick up. Abundant snowmelt will begin in the mountains, in the subpolar tundra, the area polar ice will decrease sharply, which will greatly reduce the solar albedo. Air and land temperatures are rising catastrophically. Strong winds, due to the large temperature gradient, cause sandstorms and lead to soil weathering. There is no control over the elements and the possibility of at least a little tweaking it. The pace of dramatic climate change is picking up pace. The trouble covers all regions of the world.
At the beginning of the second decade, there will be a slowdown in the thermocline circulation in the ocean, and he is the main creator of the weather. Due to the abundance of rain and the melting of the polar ice, the oceans will become fresher. The usual transfer of warm water from the equator to the middle latitudes will be suspended.
The Gulf Stream, the warm Atlantic current along North America towards Europe, the guarantor of the temperate climate of the Northern Hemisphere, will freeze. Warming in this region will be replaced by a sharp cooling and a decrease in precipitation. In just a few years, the vector of weather change will turn 180 degrees, the climate will become cold and dry.
At this point, computer models do not give a clear answer: what will actually happen? Will the climate of the Northern Hemisphere become colder and drier, which will not yet lead to a global catastrophe, or will a new ice age lasting hundreds of years begin, as happened on Earth more than once and not so long ago (Little Ice Age, Event-8200, Early Trias - 12,700 years ago).
The worst case that can really happen is this. Devastating droughts in regions of food production and high population density (North America, Europe, China). Decrease in precipitation, drying up of rivers, depletion of reserves fresh water. Reduction of food supplies, mass starvation, the spread of epidemics, the flight of the population from disaster areas. Growing international tension, wars for food sources, drinking and energy resources. At the same time, in regions with a traditionally dry climate (Asia, South America, Australia) - heavy rains, floods, the death of agricultural land, not adapted to such an abundance of moisture. And here is also an abbreviation Agriculture, lack of food. The collapse of the modern world order. Sharp, by the billions, population decline. The discard of civilization for centuries, the arrival of cruel rulers, religious wars, the collapse of science, culture, morality. Armageddon as predicted!
Abrupt, unexpected climate change to which the world simply cannot adapt.
The conclusion of the scenario is disappointing: it is necessary to take urgent measures, and it is not clear which ones. Absorbed by carnivals, championships, thoughtless shows, the enlightened world, which could “undertake” something, simply does not pay attention to it: “Scientists scare, but we are not afraid!”
SOLAR ACTIVITY AND TERRESTRIAL WEATHER
There is, however, a third version of the Earth's climate forecast, which agrees with the rampant anomalies at the beginning of the century, but does not lead to a universal catastrophe. It is based on observations of our star, which, despite all the apparent calmness, still has noticeable activity.
Solar activity is a manifestation of the outer convective zone, which occupies a third of the solar radius, where, due to a large temperature gradient (from 10 6 K inside to 6 . 10 3 K on the photosphere), hot plasma breaks out in “boiling streams” that generate local magnetic fields with a strength thousands of times greater than the total field of the Sun. All observed features of activity are due to processes in the convective zone. Photosphere granulation, hot areas (torches), ascending prominences (arcs of matter raised by magnetic field lines), dark spots and groups of spots - tubes of local magnetic fields, chromospheric flares (the result of a rapid closure of opposite magnetic fluxes, which converts the supply of magnetic energy into the energy of accelerated particles and plasma heating). In this tangle of phenomena on the visible disk of the Sun, a radiant solar corona(heated to millions of degrees upper, very rarefied atmosphere, the source of the solar wind). A significant role in solar activity is played by coronal condensations and holes observed in X-rays, and mass ejections from the corona (coronal mass ejections, CMEs). Numerous and varied manifestations of solar activity.
The most indicative, accepted activity index is the Wolf number W, introduced back in the 19th century, indicating the number of dark spots and their groups on the solar disk. The face of the Sun is covered with a changing freckle patch, which indicates the inconsistency of its activity. On c. 27 below shows a graph of average annual values W(t), obtained by direct monitoring of the Sun (the last century and a half) and restored from individual observations until 1600 (the luminary was not under “constant supervision” then). Visible ups and downs in the number of spots - activity cycles. One cycle lasts an average of 11 years (more precisely, 10.8 years), but there is a noticeable scatter (from 7 to 17 years), the variability is not strictly periodic. Harmonic analysis also reveals a second variability - secular, the period of which, also not strictly consistent, is ~100 years. On the graph, it manifests itself clearly - with such a period, the amplitude of solar cycles Wmax changes. In the middle of each century, the amplitude reached its maximum values (Wmax ~ 150-200), at the turn of the centuries it decreased to Wmax = 50-80 (at the beginning of the 19th and 20th centuries) and even to an extremely small level ( early 18th century). During a long time interval, called the Maunder minimum (1640-1720), no cyclicity was observed and the number of sunspots on the disk was calculated in units. The Maunder phenomenon, which is also observed in other stars close in luminosity and spectral class to the Sun, is a not entirely understood mechanism for the rearrangement of the convective zone of a star, as a result of which the generation of magnetic fields slows down. Deeper “excavations” have shown that similar restructurings on the Sun have happened before: the minimums of Sperer (1420-1530) and Wolf (1280-1340). As you can see, they happen on average after 200 years and last 60-120 years - at this time, the Sun seems to fall into a lethargic sleep, resting from active work. Almost 300 years have passed since the Maunder Minimum. It's time for the luminary to rest again.
Here there is a direct connection with the topic of terrestrial weather and climate change. The chronicle of the times of the Maunder minimum definitely points to anomalous weather behavior similar to what is happening today. Throughout Europe (less likely throughout the Northern Hemisphere), surprisingly cold winters were observed at this time. The canals froze, as evidenced by the paintings of the Dutch masters, the Thames froze, and it became a custom for Londoners to arrange festivities on the ice of the river. Even the North Sea, warmed by the Gulf Stream, was ice-bound, as a result of which navigation was stopped. In these years, almost no auroras were observed, which indicates a decrease in the intensity of the solar wind. The breathing of the Sun, as happens during sleep, weakened, and this is what led to climate change. The weather became cold, windy, capricious.
SOLAR BREATHING
How, by means of what is the solar activity transmitted to the Earth? There must be some material carriers that carry out the transfer. There can be several such “carriers”: the hard part of the solar radiation spectrum (ultraviolet, X-ray), solar wind, material emissions during solar flares, CMEs. The results of observations of the Sun in the 23rd cycle (1996-2006), carried out spacecraft SOHO, TRACE (USA, Europe), CORONAS-F (Russia) have shown that CMEs are the main “carriers” of solar influence. They primarily determine the earth's weather, and all the other "carriers" complete the picture (see "Science and Life" No. ).
CMEs have been studied in detail only recently, having realized their leading role in solar-terrestrial relations, although they have been noticed since the 1970s. In terms of emission frequency, mass and energy, they surpass all other “carriers”. With a mass of 1-10 billion tons and speed (1-3 . 10 km/s, these plasma clouds have a kinetic energy of ~10 25 J. Reaching the Earth for several days, they have a strong impact first on the Earth's magnetosphere, and through it on the upper layers of the atmosphere. The mechanism of action is now well understood. The Soviet geophysicist A.L. Chizhevsky guessed about it 50 years ago, in in general terms it was understood by E. R. Mustel and co-workers (1980s). Finally, today it has been proven by observations from American and European satellites. The SOHO orbital station, which has been conducting continuous observations for 10 years, has registered about 1500 CMEs. The SAMPEX and POLAR satellites noted the appearance of emissions near the Earth and traced the impact.
In general terms, the impact of CMEs on the Earth's weather is now well known. Having reached the vicinity of the planet, the expanded magnetic cloud flows around the Earth's magnetosphere along the boundary (magnetopause), since the magnetic field does not let charged plasma particles inside. The impact of the cloud on the magnetosphere generates fluctuations in the magnetic field, which manifests itself as a magnetic storm. The magnetosphere is squeezed by the flowing solar plasma flow, the concentration of field lines increases, and at some point in the development of the storm, they reconnect (similar to what generates flares on the Sun, but on a much smaller spatial and energy scale). The released magnetic energy is used to accelerate the particles of the radiation belt (electrons, positrons, protons of relatively low energies), which, having acquired energy of tens and hundreds of MeV, can no longer be retained. magnetic field Earth. A stream of accelerated particles spills out into the atmosphere along the geomagnetic equator. Interacting with the atoms of the atmosphere, charged particles transfer their energy to them. A new “energy source” appears, affecting the upper layer of the atmosphere, and through its instability to vertical displacements, the lower layers, including the troposphere. This “source”, associated with solar activity, “shatters” the weather, creating cloud accumulations, giving rise to cyclones and storms. The main result of his intervention is the destabilization of the weather: calm is replaced by a storm, dry land by heavy rainfall, rains by drought. It is noteworthy that all weather changes begin near the equator: tropical cyclones that develop into hurricanes, variable monsoons, the mysterious El Niño (“Child”), a worldwide weather disturbance that suddenly appears in the eastern Pacific Ocean and just as suddenly disappears.
According to the “solar scenario” of weather anomalies, the forecast for the 21st century is calmer. The Earth's climate will change slightly, but the weather regime will undergo a noticeable shift, as it always did when solar activity faded. It may not be very strong (colder than usual winter months and rainier summer months) if solar activity drops to Wmax ~ 50, as was the case in the early 19th and 20th centuries. It can become more serious (cooling of the climate of the entire Northern Hemisphere) if a new Maunder minimum occurs (Wmax< 10). В любом случае похолодание климата будет не кратковременным, а продолжится, вместе с аномалиями погоды, несколько десятилетий.
What awaits us in the near future will be shown by the 24th cycle, which is now beginning. With a high probability, based on the analysis of solar activity over 400 years, its amplitude Wmax will become even smaller, solar respiration even weaker. We need to keep an eye on coronal mass ejections. Their number, pace, sequence will determine the weather early XXI century. And, of course, it is absolutely necessary to understand what happens to your favorite star when her activity stops. This task is not only scientific - in solar physics, astrophysics, geophysics. Its solution is fundamentally necessary to clarify the conditions for the preservation of life on Earth.
Literature
Summary for Policymakers, A Report of Working Group I of IPCC (Shanghai, January 2001), Internet.
Schwartz R., Randall D . An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario (October 2003), Internet.
Budyko M. Climate. What will he be like? // Science and Life, 1979, No. 4.
Luchkov B. Solar influence on terrestrial weather. Scientific session MiFi-2006 // Collection scientific papers, vol. 7, p.79.
Moiseev N. The future of the planet and system analysis // Science and Life, 1974, No. 4.
Nikolaev G. Climate at a turning point // Science and Life, 1995, No. 6.
This is an increase in the average temperature on Earth due to greenhouse gas emissions: methane, carbon dioxide, water vapor. Some scientists believe that this is the fault of the industry: factories and cars generate emissions. They absorb part of the infrared radiation coming from the Earth. Due to the retained energy, the atmosphere layer and the surface of the planet are heated.
Global warming will lead to the melting of glaciers, and they, in turn, will raise the level of the oceans. Photo: depositphotos
However, there is another theory: global warming is a natural process. After all, nature itself also produces greenhouse gases: during volcanic eruptions, a colossal release of carbon dioxide occurs, permafrost, or rather, the soil in permafrost regions releases methane, and so on.
The issue of global warming has been discussed since the last century. In theory it leads to the flooding of many coastal cities, to severe storms, heavy rainfall and long droughts, which will result in problems with agriculture. Also, mammals will migrate, and some species may become extinct in the process.
Is there a warming in Russia?
Scientists are still arguing whether warming has begun. Meanwhile, Russia is warming up. According to the Roshydrometcenter data from 2014, the average temperature in the European territory is rising faster than others. And this happens in all seasons except winter.
The temperature rises most rapidly (0.052 °C/year) in the northern and European territories of Russia. This is followed by Eastern Siberia (0.050 °C/year), Central Siberia (0.043), Amur and Primorye (0.039), Baikal and Transbaikalia (0.032), Western Siberia (0.029 °C/year). From federal districts the highest rates of temperature increase in the Central, the lowest - in the Siberian (respectively 0.059 and 0.030 ° C / year). Image: WWF
"Russia remains the part of the world where climate warming over the course of the 21st century will substantially exceed global average warming," the ministry's report says.
Many scientists believe that it is more correct to track global warming by the World Ocean. Judging by our seas, it has begun: the average temperature of the Black Sea is growing by 0.08°C per year, the Sea of Azov - by 0.07°C. In the White Sea, the temperature increases by 2.1°C per year.
Despite the fact that the temperature indicators of water and air are growing, experts are in no hurry to call this global warming.
“The fact of global warming has not yet been reliably established,” says Evgeny Zubko, associate professor at the School of Natural Sciences of the Far East federal university. - The change in temperature is the result of the simultaneous action of several processes. Some lead to warming, others to cold.
One of these processes is the decline in solar activity, which leads to a significant cooling. Sunspots will be thousands of times less than usual, this happens once every 300-400 years. This phenomenon is called minimum solar activity. According to scientists from Moscow State University. M.V. Lomonosov, the decline will continue from 2030 to 2040.
Has the belt started to move?
Climatic zones - areas with stable weather, stretched horizontally. There are seven of them: equatorial, tropical, temperate, polar, subequatorial, subtropical and subpolar. Our country is large, it is surrounded by arctic, subarctic, temperate and subtropical regions.
Climatic zones of the Earth according to B.P. Alisov. Image: Kliimavootmed
“There is a possibility of movement of the belts, and, moreover, the shift is already underway,” says expert Yevgeny Zubko. What does it mean? Due to the offset, warm edges will become colder and vice versa.
Green grass will grow in Vorkuta (Arctic belt), winters will be warmer, summer periods- hotter. At the same time, it will get colder in the region of Sochi and Novorossiysk (subtropics). Winters won't be as mild as they are now, when snow falls and children are allowed to stay out of school. Summer won't be that long.
“The most striking example of a belt shift is the “offensive” of deserts,” says the climatologist. This is an increase in the area of deserts due to human activity - intensive plowing of land. Residents of such places have to move, cities disappear, as does the local fauna.
At the end of the last century, the Aral Sea, located in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, began to dry up. The fast-growing desert Aralkum is approaching it. The point is that in Soviet times the two rivers that fed the sea drained a lot of water for cotton plantations. This gradually dried up most of the sea, the fishermen lost their jobs - the fish disappeared.
Someone left their homes, some residents remained, and they have a hard time. The wind lifts salt and toxic substances from the bare bottom, which negatively affects people's health. Therefore, the Aral Sea is now trying to restore.
Every year 6 million hectares are subject to desertification. For comparison, this is like all the forests of the Republic of Bashkortostan. According to UN estimates, the damage from the onset of deserts is approximately 65 billion US dollars per year.
Why do the belts move?
“Climatic zones are shifting due to deforestation and changing riverbeds,” says climatologist Yevgeny Zubko.
The Water Code of the Russian Federation prohibits artificially changing the channels without appropriate permits. Sections of the river may become silty, and then it will die. But uncoordinated changes in the channels still occur, sometimes at the initiative of local residents, sometimes - to organize some kind of business near the reservoir.
What can we say about cutting. In Russia, 4.3 million hectares of forest are destroyed annually, the World Resources Institute has calculated. More than the entire land fund of the Kaluga region. Therefore, Russia is among the top 5 world leaders in deforestation.
For nature and man, this is a disaster: when forest cover is destroyed, animals and plants die, and rivers flowing nearby become shallow. Forests absorb harmful greenhouse gases, purifying the air. Without them, nearby cities will suffocate.
Climate change on Earth can be not only gradual. A catastrophic shift is also possible, which will require emergency, including military, response measures. This is the main conclusion of the report "Weather Report: 2010-2020", prepared by professional futurologists commissioned by the US Department of Defense. According to experts, global climate change can completely destabilize the political situation on the planet. Among the "plausible" scenarios are such scenarios as a famine in Europe and the rivalry of nuclear powers over scarce water resources.
"Strategic forecast of climate change Russian Federation for the period 2010 - 2015 and their influence on the sectors of the Russian economy. All services of Roshydromet prepared the forecast. The project was led by the head of the World Meteorological Organization, who is also the head of Roshydromet, Alexander Ivanovich Bedritsky.
In general, these data are very diagnostic. Paranoid Americans predict all sorts of punishments for everyone except America. And our "specialists" generally deduced a certain average temperature in the hospital, which was limited to this.
American experts from the Pentagon predicted climate dynamics until 2020, and geopolitical changes on the planet in connection with climate dynamics. At the same time, Roshydromet also published its forecast for Russia. You yourself have to familiarize yourself with two brief summaries on this issue, and draw your own conclusions.
Sincerely, PhD, DBA, pr. Andrey Gennadievich Shalygin
In their forecasts, the authors - Peter Schwartz and Douglas Randall - proceed from the possibility that, as a result of natural shifts, the World Ocean will suddenly begin to live according to completely different laws. Europe, Asia and North America will then lose their usual warmth. And in the Southern Hemisphere, on the contrary, it will become hotter.
According to scientists, the Earth has already experienced something similar 8200 years ago. Mankind knows, in particular, a phenomenon that has recently occurred by historical standards - the Little Glaciation. It lasted from about 1300 to 1850. Due to deteriorating weather conditions Europeans had to leave Greenland, the civilization of the Vikings withered. Only since 1315. by 1319, the famine had decimated tens of thousands of people, the report emphasizes. But then humanity was much smaller.
Despite the gigantic growth of scientific and technical equipment, man is still extremely vulnerable to the forces of nature. The world's population is huge, and a significant part of it lives in poverty, as well as in areas that are "risky" from a natural point of view. In the event that catastrophic climate change occurs, the main dangers are the lack of food, water, strategic minerals (not least oil). All this sets the stage for wars. "Inevitable" seems to the predictors and the spread of nuclear weapons.
“Since there are only five or six key grain-producing regions in the world (USA, Australia, Argentina, Russia, China and India), the paper says, surpluses in global food supplies are not enough to neutralize the effects of severe weather conditions simultaneously in a number of regions except maybe four or five. With global interdependence, the report says, the United States is becoming increasingly vulnerable to economic disruption caused by local weather changes in major agricultural and populous regions.
If the worrisome speculation becomes a reality, globalization, at least as it is now, is likely to be put to rest. From the report emerges a picture of disunity and enmity between countries and regions, when climatic conditions on the globe will change dramatically, and at the same time ideas about real well-being. According to futurologists, Europe, which “will become colder, drier, windier and more like Siberia,” may find itself in an unenviable position due to food shortages and a mass exodus of the population. Colder winters and overheated summers could spark widespread famine in China.
Best of all, as you might guess, must survive climate catastrophe America, although it will not save itself from the decline in soil fertility. But it is hardly possible to sit aside from other people's quarrels. It is quite possible to imagine the probability that the nuclear weapons India, Pakistan and China will be drawn into border conflicts over refugee flows, as well as rights to arable land and the wealth of shared rivers. If the whole planet is going to be in trouble, then even the bastions of democracy and modern civilization. Take, for example, hypothetical conflicts in Europe over water and food. And the United States will have to contain the influx of the dispossessed from other countries. The US Department of Defense has much to think about when formulating tasks for the long term.
Scientists believe that the most fantastic and contradictory possibilities open up on the geopolitical scene. "The United States and Canada can become one, making it easier to secure the borders," the authors argue. - Or Canada could close its hydropower resources from others, creating energy problems for the US. The North and the South of Korea may enter into an alliance to create a unified entity with highly advanced technologies and nuclear weapons. Europe can act as a single bloc, settling the problems of migration between individual European states and providing defense against aggressors.
Russia, which has rich reserves of minerals, oil and natural gas, can join Europe.” But precisely because of its wealth, Russia seems to have to be on the lookout. Perhaps she is destined to become a kind of oasis, which hungry neighbors will covet.
2012 - Severe drought and cold drive the population of the Scandinavian states south, which encounters resistance from other countries of the European Union;
2015 - Conflict emerges within the EU over food and water supplies, leading to skirmishes and diplomatic tensions;
2018 - Russia joins the EU, providing it with energy resources;
2020 - There is a migration of the population from the northern countries, such as the Netherlands and Germany, towards Spain and Italy;
2020 - Increase in skirmishes over water use and immigration;
2022 - Clashes between France and Germany over commercial access to the Rhine;
2025 - The EU is close to disintegration;
2027 - The migration flow to the Mediterranean countries, such as Algeria, Morocco and Israel, increases;
2030 - Nearly 10 percent European populations are moving to other countries.
2010 - Border skirmishes and conflicts between Bangladesh, India and China, with simultaneous mass migration towards Myanmar;
2012 - Regional instability forces Japan to create the potential for external force;
2015 - Strategic agreement between Japan and Russia on the use of energy resources in Siberia and Sakhalin;
2018 - China intervenes in Kazakhstan to protect pipelines constantly sabotaged by rebels and criminals;
2020 - Ongoing Conflict in Southeast Asia; Myanmar, Laos, Vietnam, India, China participate.
2025 - Domestic conditions in China deteriorate sharply, leading to civil war and frontier wars;
2030 - Tensions rise between China and Japan over Russia's energy resources.
2010 - Disagreements with Canada and Mexico over growing tensions over water resources;
2012 - The flow of refugees to the southeastern United States and Mexico from the islands of the Caribbean;
2015 - Migration of Europeans to the United States (mostly wealthy);
2016 - Conflict with European countries over fishing rights;
2018 - North American perimeter defense, integrated security system with Canada and Mexico:
2020 - Department of Defense becomes in charge of border security and containment of the flow of refugees from the Caribbean and Europe;
2020 - Oil prices rise as security of supply is threatened by conflicts in the Persian Gulf and Caspian zones;
2025 - Due to the internal strife in Saudi Arabia, the navies of China and the United States are drawn to the Persian Gulf - for a direct confrontation.
Will it be possible to protect yourself from possible adversity? According to the authors of the report, the United States and Australia will be able to resist the natural cataclysm quite successfully, which "surround themselves with a fortress, since they have the resources and reserves to achieve self-sufficiency." Russia, in all likelihood, will have a harder time defending itself. “Imagine countries of Eastern Europe who find it increasingly difficult to feed their populations due to declining food, water and energy supplies, the authors paint a bleak picture. - They look to Russia, whose population is already declining, and want access to its grain, minerals and energy resources. Or imagine Japan suffering from the flooding of coastal cities and the pollution of fresh water supplies. It considers the oil and gas resources of the Russian island of Sakhalin as a source of energy.”
Authors of the report compiled for the Office overall ratings The Pentagon does not at all urge the United States to immediately prepare for a military response to possible climate change. To begin with, they recommend preventive measures of a mainly scientific nature: improve climate prediction models, assemble into a comprehensive system predictive models of environmental, economic, socio-political the consequences of climate change, develop methods for assessing the vulnerability of the country associated with possible climate shifts, create response teams to such disasters (for example, to ensure the uninterrupted supply of water and food to society) and conduct appropriate exercises, study “geoengineering options” for climate control. It is recommended not to forget about the good old diplomacy.
It is possible that recommendations will remain unclaimed for decades. Scientists themselves urge not to be too afraid of the horrors painted in the report. They emphasize that the scenarios they proposed are very unlikely. But such is the specificity of the Pentagon's activity - "thinking about the unthinkable."
This activity is not at all as useless as it might seem at first glance. After all, back in 1983, the American military department was wondering what to do in the event of death Soviet Union, recalls one of the authors of the document P. Schwartz, who has long been advising the US military. And in 1995, the possibility of terrorists using planes to strike at the skyscrapers of the World Trade Center in New York was considered.
"Strategic forecast of climate change in the Russian Federation for the period 2010 - 2015. and their influence on the sectors of the Russian economy” did not impress me with the depth of analysis, as well as with the quality.
Literally all services of Roshydromet prepared the forecast - hydrologists, geophysicists, polar explorers, oceanologists, and specialists in space meteorology. And the project was personally led by the head of the World Meteorological Organization, who is also the head of Roshydromet, Alexander Ivanovich Bedritsky.
The advantage of warming for Russia is that the rivers will freeze later in autumn and be freed from ice earlier in spring. This means that more cargo can be transported along the rivers. By 2010 - 2015, ships will be able to navigate the Siberian rivers, the Kama and its tributaries for 15 - 27 days a year more than now.
But in the North Arctic Ocean ice conditions will worsen. Navigation along the Northern Sea Route without icebreakers will become possible only 10-15 days a year (compared to the current 2 months!), and in some years it may stop altogether. Due to strong waves and winds, ice storms will occur more often, and the chances of encountering an iceberg will increase in the northern seas. Ice floating mountains are dangerous not only for the "Titanics", but also for oil and gas drilling platforms in the Arctic.
Spring floods in the next 10 years may become a disaster in the Arkhangelsk region, the Komi Republic, in the Urals, in cities and towns on the Yenisei and Lena and their tributaries, in the North Caucasus, in the Krasnodar and Stavropol Territories, in the Rostov, Astrakhan and Volgograd regions. On the Lena River in Yakutia, the strongest floods will happen twice as often as now!
In the foothills of the Urals, in Altai, in Western Siberia the flood is expected to be 5 times stronger than usual.
In almost all regions of Russia there are low-lying places that are flooded almost every spring. If now the flood lasts an average of 12 days, and then the water subsides, then by 2015 boats will have to swim through the streets twice as long, 24 days a year! The prospect of becoming "gondoliers" is among the inhabitants of the center and north of the European part of Russia, Eastern Siberia, north-east of the Asian part of the country and Kamchatka.
In addition to spring waters, heavy rains threaten floods. Catastrophic - in Dagestan, in the lower reaches of the Terek.
On Far East and in Primorye (Primorsky and Khabarovsk Territories, Amur and Sakhalin Regions, Jewish District) rain floods will occur 2-3 times more often than now. A North Caucasus, the Stavropol Territory and the Sayans in the summer, due to rain, more mudflows and landslides await - also more and more often than now.
While some regions are flooded, others will suffer from thirst. Water shortage awaits the Belgorod and Kursk regions, Kalmykia. There, one person will have 1000 - 1500 m3 of water per year - according to the international classification, this is considered a very low or even critical water supply. In Moscow and the Moscow region, the population will grow even more, and water will also be scarce there.
Roshydromet warns of the danger of serious environmental disasters- oil spills and gas emissions due to pipeline accidents. The point is that the majority of Russian pipelines were built 25-30 years ago, and their service life is coming to an end. First of all, problems should be expected where pipelines cross rivers:
On the Upper and Middle Volga and its tributaries in the Nizhny Novgorod, Orenburg, Perm, Samara, Saratov, Ulyanovsk regions, Bashkortostan, Mari El, Mordovia, Tatarstan, Udmurtia and Chuvashia;
On the rivers of the Southern Federal District;
On the rivers of Siberia Tyumen region, in the Krasnoyarsk Territory, Novosibirsk, Omsk, Tomsk and Irkutsk
areas;
In the Khabarovsk Territory and on Sakhalin.
By 2015, the heating period will be reduced by 3-4 days. For 5 days less batteries may be hot for residents of the southern regions of Primorsky Krai, Sakhalin and Kamchatka. It seems to be a little - but if you count every house in every city, the savings will come out decent.
According to the forecast of Roshydromet, repairs will have to be done twice as often as today. First of all, this concerns the European territory of Russia and Primorye.
And in the summer, we will increasingly have to languish from the heat - the so-called "heat waves" will descend on the whole of Russia (in a simple way - for several days in a row the thermometers will go off scale for +30). Residents of megacities have the worst time in the heat. And in the sense of finance - more money will be spent on air conditioning offices and apartments. Forecasters believe that it is necessary to prepare doctors in advance - so that they know which diseases are exacerbated in the heat. And build new houses with the expectation of changing weather.
For agriculture, warming is both good and bad. The good thing is that in winter the soil will freeze less. Already now, winter crops can be grown where they died from frost: in the steppes of the Volga region, in the Southern Urals and in some regions of Western Siberia and the European part of Russia.
Plants have more time to grow and bear fruit. In the language of agrometeorologists, this is called "an increase in the growing season." That is, the time when it is not colder than +5 outside.
In the European part of Russia (except for the Southern Federal District) and in Siberia (except for Yamal and Taimyr), the warm season has become longer by 5-10 days.
By 2015, the growing season will be 10 to 20 days longer than now. As a result, many varieties of corn and sunflower will grow at the latitude of Moscow, Vladimir, Yoshkar-Ola and Chelyabinsk. And in the North Caucasus and the Lower Volga region, vineyards, cotton fields, tea plantations and orange groves will flourish - as now in Uzbekistan. In the north and northwest of Russia, in the Volga-Vyatka region and in the Far East, yields will increase by 10-15%.
And the bad thing is that there will be more droughts - one and a half to two times! Because of this, grain yields in the North Caucasus will fall by 22%, in the Chernozem region - by 7%.
There will be more fire days throughout the country. On average - 5 days per summer. And in the most "combustible" regions - for 7 days or more. Most often, forests will burn:
in the south of the Khanty-Mansiysk district,
in the Kurgan region,
in the Omsk region,
in the Novosibirsk region,
in the Kemerovo region,
in the Tomsk region,
in the Krasnoyarsk Territory,
in the Altai Territory,
in Yakutia.
In the coming decades, "spring" will come on the southern border of the permafrost zone. In the Irkutsk and Arkhangelsk regions, Khabarovsk Territory, Komi, a strip several tens of kilometers wide will thaw. And in the Khanty-Mansiysk Okrug and Yakutia - up to 100 - 150 km. Soil thawing is dangerous for roads and buildings - foundations can “lead”. First of all, Chukotka may suffer, settlements in the upper reaches of the Indigirka and Kolyma, southeast of Yakutia, West Siberian Plain, Kara coast, Novaya Zemlya and the European Far North. Earth can "leak" from under the Bilibino nuclear power plant, oil production complexes and - worst of all - radioactive waste storage facilities on Novaya Zemlya.
Weather forecast until 2015
The first conclusion of the "Strategic Forecast": in Russia it really became warmer, and mainly in the last 15 years. For the entire XX century, the average temperature in the country has risen by 1 degree. And almost half of the increase in temperature "milk yield" occurred in the last decade of the century (1990 - 2000).
Warming in our country, like everything else, with national characteristics, is noticeable mainly in winter and spring. And to the east of the Urals - stronger than in the European part of the country. But here's the autumn that was a hundred years ago, and has remained so! And in the western regions of Russia, it even became colder than before.
What will happen next? By 2015, the average temperature will rise another 0.6 degrees. Again, “asymmetrically”: winters will become warmer by 1 degree, and summer - by only 0.4. Good news for skiers and fans of snowball fights: by 2015, almost all of Russia will get more snow (by 4-6%). And in the north of Eastern Siberia - as much as 7 - 9%.
Nature has more bad weather
The most optimistic part of the forecast completely refutes song wisdom. Nature has bad weather, and the further - the more! In the language of meteorologists, this is called "dangerous hydrometeorological phenomena." In simple language, this is everything that greatly prevents us from living in peace: squalls and downpours, severe frost and unbearable heat, drought and floods, sudden changes in the weather (when you go to bed it’s hot outside, and in the morning it’s raining and almost frosts, a very familiar picture this Moscow summer!).
All these joys are added every year by 6.3% (see chart). This trend will continue until 2015. Spoon of honey: we will learn about the next cataclysm in advance! Soon our weather forecasters will launch a new supercomputer. And they promise that even then they will be able to accurately predict 90% of misfortunes!
The most dangerous time of the year is summer! 70% of weather problems occur from April to October. By the way, most often we are not washed away and not frozen, but blown away: 36% of all cases of extremely bad weather are hurricanes, squalls and tornadoes.
Climate change over 15 years: forecasts and reality
In the 90s of the XX century, quite perfect, as it seemed to their creators, mathematical models were proposed, which made it possible to predict the state of the climate on Earth in the coming decades. Recently, a group of scientists from different countries compared these forecasts with what actually happened over the past 15 years. It turned out that the changes in the content of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere were well predicted and the course of temperature was acceptable. Both of these indicators increased in accordance with previously identified trends. But the average level of the World Ocean grew faster than expected. From 1990 to 2005, it increased by about 4 cm, and an increase of only 2 cm was predicted.
In order to predict the climate changes that await us, scientists rely on rather complex mathematical models. And models are built on the basis of what has already been observed in previous years, and on the understanding of the interconnections of physical processes occurring on the surface of our planet. You need to know, for example, how the content of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and temperature are related, or how the state of the largest glaciers depends on temperature (and they can not only melt with warming, but also grow, for example, in the central regions of Greenland and Antarctica, since there more precipitation begins to fall). The state of glaciers, in turn, directly affects the level of the World Ocean. The more water on the planet is bound in ice, the lower the ocean level.
To compare the predictions of the models proposed in the 1990s with what really happened over the past 15 years, a group of scientists from different countries, led by Stefan Rahmstorf from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, decided , Germany). The scenarios proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were taken as a basis. Although these projections were published in 2001, they were based on data obtained before 1990 and did not take into account more recent observations. The results of comparing reality with model calculations are summarized by Ramstorf and his colleagues in a paper recently published in the journal Science. present time. Thin solid lines are real data, thick solid lines are averaged real data showing the main trend. The dotted lines indicate the forecast data and the resulting confidence intervals (areas shaded in gray). Changes in temperature and sea level are given as deviations from the trend line where it crosses the 1990 mark (taken as zero). Rice. from the article in question in Science.
As can be seen from the graphs in the article (and reproduced here), the evolution of carbon dioxide content (top panel) since 1990 has been well in line with the predicted trend. The CO2 data comes from a long series of measurements taken by the Mauna Loa Observatory in the Hawaiian Islands. And since this is still the Northern Hemisphere, the average values for everything globe should be slightly less due to an insignificant but persistent difference between the northern and southern halves of our planet (in the Southern Hemisphere, the CO2 content is somewhat lower).
The graph also clearly shows annual small but highly regular fluctuations in CO2 content, which occur as a result of seasonal changes in the activity of terrestrial vegetation. Intensive photosynthesis of plants in late spring and summer leads to the fact that CO2 in the air decreases and reaches a minimum in early autumn. The processes leading to the entry of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, unlike photosynthesis, continue all year round: this is the respiration of all organisms (primarily bacteria and fungi that decompose the bulk of the dead organic matter), and human combustion of fuel. That is why the seasonal maximum of CO2 content in the atmosphere occurs at the beginning of spring.
The average annual temperature (middle panel of the graph) is increasing, making some fluctuations that are difficult to predict, because they are the result of a random combination of different circumstances in the dynamics of the atmosphere and ocean currents. In the 16 years since 1990, the average temperature on Earth has risen by 0.33°C. This value, in general, corresponds to the forecasts of the IPCC model, but is at the upper limit of the corridor of acceptable values.
The central line of a possible temperature change trend was calculated in the model based on the fact that if the CO2 content in the atmosphere doubles, the temperature will increase by 3°, and the extreme values of the confidence intervals (the boundaries of the "uncertainty corridor") correspond to an increase in the average temperature by 1.7 ° and 4.2° for doubling the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere. It is possible that some discrepancy between the model's prediction and reality is due to the fact that carbon dioxide actually has a stronger effect on temperature than expected. Another possible explanation is the underestimation of the cooling effect of aerosols, which can be either of natural origin or formed as a result of human activities. Finally, it is possible that some deviation of the observed values from the predicted ones is explained by the internal variability of the climate system itself, a consequence of the dynamics of the interaction of its components unknown to us.
The least satisfactory was the forecast of the level of the World Ocean (bottom panel of the graph). In recent years, this level has risen noticeably faster than the IPCC model predicted. The real increase (according to satellite measurements) from 1993 to 2006 averaged 3.3 ± 0.4 mm per year, while the model gave less than 2 mm per year as the most probable value. The authors of the article note that the rise in sea level over the past 20 years has been faster than in any twenty years during the previous 115 years. The observed values correspond to the extreme figures given in the model as unlikely and associated with the so-called "uncertainty in the state of ice on land". And although the main contribution to ocean level rise is made by a simple thermal expansion of the water mass with an increase in global temperature, the melting of glaciers also plays a significant and apparently underestimated role. However, the most recent publications on this topic seem to indicate an insignificant effect of the melting of the glaciers of Greenland and Antarctica on the ocean level.
The authors come to the conclusion that scientific forecasts of climate change should be taken seriously. The course of carbon dioxide content in the atmosphere and changes were predicted quite well. And in the case of sea level (the least satisfactory forecast), the reality turned out to be more threatening than predicted.
