Conflict escalation (from Latin scala - ladder) is understood as the development of the conflict progressing in time, the aggravation of the confrontation, in which the subsequent destructive effects of opponents on each other are higher in intensity than the previous ones. The escalation of the conflict represents that part of it that begins with an incident and ends with a weakening of the struggle, with a transition to the end of the conflict.

Signs of escalation

Narrowing of the cognitive sphere in behavior and activity. Below we will look in more detail psychological mechanism escalation. Now we note that in the course of escalation there is a transition to more primitive forms of reflection.

Repression of an adequate perception of the other image of the enemy. The image of the enemy as a holistic view of the opponent, integrating distorted and illusory features, begins to form during the latent period of the conflict as a result of perception determined by negative assessments. As long as there is no opposition, as long as the threats are not realized, the image of the enemy is focal in nature. It can be compared to a poorly developed photographic image, where the image is fuzzy and pale. In the course of escalation, the image of the enemy manifests itself more and more expressively and gradually replaces the objective image. That the image of the enemy becomes dominant in the information model of the conflict situation,:
- distrust (everything that comes from the enemy is either bad or, if it is reasonable, pursues dishonest goals); putting the blame on the enemy (the enemy is responsible for all the problems that have arisen and is to blame for everything);
- negative expectation (everything the enemy does, he does for the sole purpose of harming us); identification with evil (the enemy embodies the opposite what I am and what I aspire to, he wants to destroy what I cherish and therefore must be destroyed himself);
- representation of "zero sum" (everything that is beneficial to the enemy harms us, and vice versa);
- deindividualization (anyone who belongs to this group is automatically our enemy); denial of sympathy (we have nothing to do with our enemy, no information can induce us to show humane feelings towards him, to be guided by ethical criteria in relation to the enemy is dangerous and imprudent). Strengthening the image of the enemy is facilitated by: an increase negative emotions; expectation of destructive actions of the other side; negative stereotypes and attitudes; the significance of the object of conflict for the individual (group); duration of the conflict.

Rising emotional stress. Arises as a reaction to the growth of the threat of possible damage; decrease in controllability of the opposite side; inability to realize their interests in the desired volume in a short time; opponent's resistance.

The transition from arguments to claims and personal attacks. When people's opinions collide, they usually try to argue them. Surrounding, evaluating the position of a person, indirectly evaluate his ability to argue. A person usually attaches a significant personal coloring to the fruits of his intellect. Therefore, criticism of the results of his intellectual activity can be perceived as a negative assessment of himself as a person. Criticism in this case is perceived as a threat to the self-esteem of the individual, and attempts to protect oneself lead to the displacement of the subject of the conflict into the personal plane.

The growth of the hierarchical rank of violated and protected interests and their polarization. A more intense action affects more important interests the other side. Therefore, the escalation of the conflict can be considered as a process of deepening contradictions, i.e., as a process of growth in the hierarchical rank of taught interests. During escalation, the interests of opponents seem to be divorced into opposite poles. If in a pre-conflict situation they could somehow coexist, then when the conflict escalates, the existence of one is possible only by ignoring the interests of the other side.

Use of violence. A distinctive feature of the escalation of the conflict is the introduction of the last of the arguments - violence - into the "battle".

According to S. Kudryavtsev, many acts of violence are caused by revenge. Studies of aggression show that it is largely associated with some kind of internal compensation (lost prestige, lower self-esteem, etc.), compensation for damage. Actions in the conflict can be caused by the desire for retribution for the damage caused to the "I".

Physical violence and aggression in general are provoked not only by an already implemented threat, but also by a potential threat. Therefore, the intensification of physical violence in a conflict is associated with an increase in the intensity of mutual actions caused by inadequate retribution for the destruction of the "I".

Loss of original point of contention lies in the fact that the confrontation, which began because of the disputed object, develops into a more global clash, during which the original subject of the conflict no longer plays the main role. The conflict becomes independent of the causes that caused it and continues after they have become insignificant (M. Deutsch).

Expanding the boundaries of the conflict. There is a generalization of the conflict, i.e., a transition to deeper contradictions, the emergence of many different points collisions. The conflict spreads over a wider area. There is an expansion of its temporal and spatial boundaries.

Increase in the number of participants. As the conflict escalates, there may be “ enlargement» opposing actors by engaging all more participants. The transformation of an interpersonal conflict into an intergroup one. The numerical increase and change in the structures of rival groups changes the nature of the conflict, expanding the set of means used in it.

The external plan for the escalation of the conflict can be described using the theory of " symmetrical schismogenesis» (G. Bateson) Schismogenesis is a change in individual behavior resulting from the accumulation of experience of interaction between individuals. There are two variants of schismogenesis - Complementary and symmetrical. Additional takes place in those cases where the interaction is based on complementary actions, for example, the persistence of one subject and the compliance of another. In the course of interaction, the increasing persistence of one subject can lead to an increasing compliance of the other, and vice versa, and so on until the relationship is destroyed. Symmetrical schismogenesis develops when subjects use the same behavioral patterns. The other responds to the behavior of the subject with behavior of the same direction, but more intense, and so on. The result will also be the destruction of relationships.

Although G. Bateson does not directly connect symmetrical schismogenesis with the development of the conflict, it is obvious that the escalation of the struggle occurs precisely according to this principle. From the recognition of the external similarity of the parties and the "symmetry" of the development of interaction, it does not follow that the parties in the process of struggle pursue the same goals. One side may strive to change the existing correlation of positions, adhere to an offensive strategy; the other is to try to maintain the status quo and stick to a completely defensive strategy. Clearly, more intense offensive actions are more likely to trigger intense defenses, and vice versa.

Speaking about the internal springs of the escalation of the conflict, it is necessary to turn to the features of the evolution of the functioning of the psyche in conditions of danger and threat. The theory of evolutionary epistemology (G. Volmer, K. Lorenz) claims that a person who does not have special organs that contribute to survival in an attack or defense (fangs, paws, hooves, etc.) survived thanks to the abilities of the brain, which allow better adaptation to the conditions environment. The history of brain development spans hundreds of millions of years. Lengthwise cut human brain in the middle line shows the presence of very ancient young parts, the cumulative activity of which determines the way the world is perceived, and also controls human behavior. Archaic mechanisms of aggressive and defensive actions in relation to the source of threat in the form of original programs are embedded in the deep layers of the diencephalon (it was formed hundreds of millions of years ago). They were necessary to ensure survival in the first, biological phase of evolution.

Since the beginning of human cultural evolution, as opposed to aggressive and defensive actions, an interest in the unknown has developed. The assessment of the unknown as threatening or interesting is the product of the interaction of archaic reactions of the diencephalon and relatively recently acquired reactions of the telencephalon (formed in the last 3-4 million years). If spontaneous fears dominate, then the signals of the diencephalon will subdue and supplant the physiologically weaker processes of the telencephalon. Therefore, empathy, tolerance, compromise behavior and other positive social gains may not be realized due to feelings of insecurity, social pressure, fear and stress of all kinds that arise during times of threat.

As the conflict escalates, the conscious sphere of the psyche regresses. This process is avalanche-like, based on the unconscious and subconscious levels. mental activity. It develops not chaotically, but in stages, reproducing the ontogeny of the psyche, but in the opposite direction (Fig. 19.2).

The first two stages reflect the development of the pre-conflict situation. The importance of one's own desires and arguments grows. There is a fear that the ground will be lost For a joint solution of the problem. The mental tension grows. Measures taken by one side to change the position of the opponent are understood by the opposite side as a signal for escalation.

The third stage is the actual beginning of the escalation. All Hopes focus on action instead of waterless discussions. However, the expectations of the participants are paradoxical: both sides hope, through pressure and firmness, to cause a change in the position of the opponent, while no one is ready to voluntarily give in. A mature, complex view of reality is sacrificed in favor of a simplistic approach that is easier to sustain emotionally. The real problems of the conflict lose their significance, while the personality of the enemy is in the spotlight.

At the fourth stage, the functioning of the psyche regresses approximately to the level corresponding to the age of 6-8 years. The person still has the image of the “other”, but he is no longer ready to reckon with the thoughts, feelings and position of this “ another". In the emotional sphere, a black-and-white approach begins to dominate, i.e. everything that is “not me” or “not us” is bad, and therefore rejected.

At the fifth stage of the escalation, clear signs of progressive regression appear in the form of absolutization of the negative assessment of the opponent and the positive assessment of oneself. At stake are "sacred values," beliefs, and highest moral obligations. Force and violence take impersonal forms, the perception of the opposite side freezes in the hard image of the enemy. The enemy is devalued to the state of “a thing and is deprived of human traits. However, the same people are able to function normally within their group. This makes it difficult for the inexperienced observer to take into account their deeply regressed perceptions of others when taking action to resolve the conflict.

The regression described above is not inevitable for any person in any difficult situation of social interaction. A lot depends on upbringing, on the assimilation of moral norms and everything that is called the social experience of constructive interaction.

Escalation is an increase, expansion, strengthening, spreading of something.

What does the escalation of a dispute, conflict, incident, war, tension or issue mean?

Escalation is the definition

The escalation of the conflict is term (from English. Escalation letters. climbing with the help of a ladder), denoting a gradual increase, increase, build-up, aggravation, expansion of something. In the Soviet press, the term became widespread in the 1960s in connection with the expansion of US military aggression in Indochina. It is used in relation to armed conflicts, disputes, various problems.

Escalation of the conflict- This gradual increase, growth, expansion, build-up (of armaments, etc.), spread (of a conflict, etc.), aggravation of the situation.

The escalation of the conflict is consistent and steady growth, increase, intensification, expansion of struggle, conflict, aggression.

The escalation of the conflict is expansion, build-up, increase in something, intensification.

Escalation is the development of a conflict that progresses over time; aggravation of the confrontation, in which the subsequent destructive effects of opponents on each other are more intense than the previous ones.

The escalation of the war is the militaristic concept of the gradual transformation of a military-political conflict into a crisis situation and into a war.

Problem escalation is bringing the problem for discussion to a higher level if it is impossible to solve it at the current one.

The escalation of the customs tariff is increase in customs tax rates depending on the degree of processing of the product.

The tariff structure of many countries primarily provides protection for national producers of finished products, especially without preventing the import of raw materials and semi-finished products.

For example, nominal and effective food tariffs are USA 4.7 and 10.6%, respectively, in Japan - 25.4 and 50.3%, in the European Union - 10.1 and 17.8%. Almost double the excess is real existing level taxation of food products above the nominal level is achieved through the imposition of imported duties on the foodstuffs from which they are produced. Therefore, it is the effective, and not the nominal, level of customs protection that is the subject of negotiations during the emergence of trade conflicts between the three centers of the modern market economy.

Tariff escalation - an increase in the level of customs taxation of goods as the degree of their processing increases.

The higher the percentage increase in the tariff rate as you move from raw materials to finished products, the higher the degree of protection of producers of finished products from external competition.

Tariff escalation of the conflict in the developed countries stimulates the production of raw materials in developing countries and preserves technological backwardness, since only with raw materials, the customs taxation of which is minimal, they can really break through to them. In the same time market finished goods is practically closed to developing countries due to the significant tariff escalation of the conflict, which takes place in most developed countries.

So, the customs tariff is an instrument of trade policy and state regulation of the country's domestic market in its interaction with the world market. market; set of rates systematized in accordance with the commodity nomenclature of foreign economic activity customs fees applicable to goods transported across the customs border; a specific rate of customs tax payable on the export or import of a certain product to the customs territory of the country. Customs taxes can be classified according to the method of collection, the object of taxation, nature, origin, types of rates and method of calculation. Customs imposed on the customs value product- normal price product, which is formed on the open market between an independent seller and buyer, for which it can be sold in the country of destination at the time of filing a customs declaration.

The nominal rate of duty is indicated in the import tariff and only approximately indicates the level of customs protection of the country. The actual fare rate shows real level customs taxation of final imported goods, calculated taking into account the duties imposed on intermediate goods. To protect national producers of finished products and stimulate the import of raw materials and semi-finished products, tariff escalation of the conflict is used - an increase in the level of customs taxation of goods as the degree of their processing increases.

For example: the level of customs taxation of leather goods, built according to the principle of the production chain (hide - leather - leather products), increases as the degree of processing of the skin increases. IN USA the scale of the tariff escalation of the conflict is 0.8-3.7-9.2%, in Japan- 0-8.5-12.4, in European Union- 0-2.4-5.5%. According to GATT, the tariff escalation of the conflict is especially strong in developed countries.

Import developed countries from developing countries (import tariff rate, in %)

Escalation of the conflict

Escalation (from the Latin scala - “ladder”) refers to the development of a conflict that progresses over time; aggravation of the confrontation, in which the subsequent destructive effects of opponents on each other are more intense than the previous ones. Escalation represents that part of it that begins with an incident and ends with a weakening of the struggle, a transition to the end of the conflict.

Escalation is characterized by the following features:

1. Narrowing of the cognitive sphere in behavior and activity. In the process of conflict escalation, there is a transition to more primitive forms of display.

2. Displacement of adequate perception of the other, the image of the enemy.

Escalation is

The image of the enemy as a holistic view of the opponent, which integrates distorted and illusory features, begins to form in process the latent period of the conflict as a result of perception determined by negative assessments. As long as there is no opposition, as long as the threats are not implemented, the image of the enemy is indirect. It can be compared to a poorly developed photographic image, where the image is fuzzy and pale.

IN process As the conflict escalates, the image of the enemy appears more and more clearly and gradually replaces the objective image.

Escalation is

The image of the enemy that dominates in a conflict situation is evidenced by:

Mistrust;

Putting the blame on the enemy;

negative expectation;

Identification with evil;

The "zero-sum" view ("everything that benefits the enemy harms us", and vice versa);

Deindividualization ("everyone who belongs to this group is automatically our enemy");

Denial of condolences.

Escalation is

Strengthening the image of the enemy contribute to:

The growth of negative emotions;

Expecting destructive actions from the other side;

Negative stereotypes and attitudes;

The seriousness of the object of the conflict for the person (group);

duration of the conflict.

Escalation is

Arises as a reaction to the growth of the threat of possible damage; decrease in controllability of the opposite side; inability to realize their interests in the desired volume in a short time; opponent's resistance.

4. The transition from arguments to claims and personal attacks.

Escalation is

When people's opinions collide, people usually try to argue them. Others, evaluating a person's position, thereby indirectly evaluate his ability to argue. A person usually adds a significant personality color to the fruits of his intellect. Therefore, criticism of the results of his intellectual activity can be perceived as a negative assessment of him as a person. Criticism in this case is perceived as a threat to a person's self-esteem, and attempts to protect oneself lead to a displacement of the subject of the conflict into a personal plane.

5. The growth of the hierarchical rank of interests is violated and protected, its polarization.

A more intense action affects the more important interests of the other side. Therefore, escalation can be considered as a deepening of contradictions, i.e. as a process of growth of the hierarchical rank of interests, is violated.

Escalation is

In the process of escalation of the conflict, the interests of opponents seem to be divorced into opposite poles. If in a pre-conflict situation they could somehow coexist, then with the escalation of the existence of one, it is possible only by ignoring the interests of the other side.

6. Use of violence.

A characteristic sign of escalation is the use of the last of the arguments - violence. Many violent acts are driven by revenge. Aggression is associated with the desire for some kind of internal compensation (for lost prestige, reduced self-esteem, etc.), compensation for damage. Actions in conflict may be driven by the desire for retribution for damage.

7. The loss of the original subject of disagreement lies in the fact that the confrontation, which began through the disputed object, develops into a more global clash, in which the original subject of the conflict no longer plays the main role. The conflict becomes independent of the causes it was caused, and it continues after they have become insignificant.

8. Expanding the boundaries of the conflict.

There is a generalization of the conflict, i.e. the transition to deeper contradictions, there are many different points of contact. The conflict spreads over a large area. There is an expansion of its temporal and spatial boundaries.

9. Increase in the number of participants.

This can happen in the process of escalation through the involvement of an increasing number of participants. The transformation of an interpersonal conflict into an intergroup conflict, a quantitative increase and a change in the structure of the groups participating in the confrontation, changes the nature of the conflict, expanding the set of means used in it.

With the aggravation of the conflict, there is a regression of the conscious sphere of the psyche. This process is undulating in nature, based on the unconscious and subconscious levels of mental activity. It develops not chaotically, but in stages, according to the plan of the ontogeny of the psyche, but in the opposite direction).

Escalation is

The first two stages reflect the development before the conflict situation. The importance of one's own desires and arguments grows. There is a fear that the ground for a joint solution of the problem will be lost. The mental tension grows. Measures taken by one of the parties to change the opponent's position are understood by the opposite side as a signal to escalate the conflict.

The third stage is the actual beginning of the escalation of the conflict. All expectations are focused on actions that replace futile discussions. However, the expectations of the participants are paradoxical: both sides hope to cause a change in the opponent's position with pressure and toughness, while no one is ready to voluntarily give in. A mature view of reality is sacrificed in favor of a simplistic approach that is easier to support emotionally.

The real problems of the conflict lose importance, while the face of the enemy is in the spotlight.

Age levels of emotional and socio-cognitive functioning of the human psyche:

The beginning of the latent phase;

latent phase;

Demonstrative phase;

Aggressive phase;

Battle phase.

At the fourth stage of functioning, the psyche regresses approximately to the level corresponding to the age of 6-8 years. A person still has an image of another, but he is no longer ready to reckon with the thoughts, feelings and state of this other. In the emotional sphere, a black-and-white approach begins to dominate, that is, everything that is “not me” or “not us” is bad, and therefore leans back.

At the fifth stage of the escalation of the conflict, clear signs of progressive regression appear in the form of absolutization of the negative assessment of the opponent and the positive assessment of oneself. Sacred values, beliefs and supreme moral obligations are at stake. Force and violence acquire an impersonal form, the perception of the opposite side freezes in the solid image of the enemy. The enemy is devalued to the state of a thing and deprived of human traits. However, the same people are able to function normally within their group. Therefore, it is difficult for an inexperienced observer to perceive a deeply regressed perception of others, to take measures to resolve the conflict.

Regression is not inevitable for any person in any difficult situation of social interaction. A lot depends on upbringing, on the assimilation of moral norms and everything that is called the social experience of constructive interaction.

Escalation of interstate conflicts

The escalation of an armed conflict has a tactical role in military conflicts and clear rules for the use of armed force.

There are six stages of interstate conflicts.

Escalation is

The first stage of a political conflict is characterized by the formed attitude of the parties regarding a specific contradiction or group of contradictions (this is a fundamental political attitude formed on the basis of certain objective and subjective contradictions and the corresponding economic, ideological, international legal, military-strategic, diplomatic relations regarding data contradictions, expressed in a more or less acute conflict form.)

The second phase of the conflict is the determination of the strategy by the warring parties and the forms of their struggle to resolve the existing contradictions, taking into account the potential and possibilities for using various, including violent means, internal and international situations.

Escalation is

The third stage is connected with the involvement of other participants in the struggle through blocs, alliances, and agreements.

Escalation is

The fourth stage is the escalation of the struggle, up to a crisis, gradually embracing all the participants from both sides and developing into a nationwide one.

Escalation is

The fifth stage of the conflict is the transition of one of the parties to practical application forces, initially for demonstrative purposes or on a limited scale.

The sixth stage is an armed conflict, starting with a limited conflict (limitations in goals, territories covered, scale and level fighting used by military means) and capable, under certain circumstances, of developing to more high levels armed struggle ( wars as a sequel politicians) of all participants.

In international conflicts, the main subjects are predominantly states:

Interstate conflicts (both opposing sides are represented by states or their coalitions);

National liberation wars (one of the parties is represented by the state): anti-colonial, wars of the peoples, against racism, as well as against governments acting in contradiction to the principles of people's power;

Internal internationalized conflicts (acts as an assistant to one of the parties in an internal conflict on the territory of another state).

Escalation is

Interstate conflict often takes the form of war. It is necessary to draw a clear line between war and military conflict:

Military conflicts are less widespread. Goals are limited. The reasons are debatable. The reason for the war is the deep economic and ideological contradictions between the states. Wars are bigger;

War is the state of the whole society participating in it, military conflict is the state of a social group;

War partially changes the further development of the state, a military conflict can lead to only minor changes.

Escalation of World War II in the Far East

The leadership of a distant Asian country, which had not known military defeats for thousands of years, made the most important conclusions for itself: the Republic of Germany finally wins in Europe, Russia disappears as a factor in the world politicians, England is retreating on all fronts, an isolationist and materialistic America will not be able to turn overnight into a military giant - such a chance happens once in a millennium. Moreover, dissatisfaction with the sanctions of the United States has spread in the country. AND Japan made her choice. 189 Japanese bombers came in from the direction of the sun over the main American base in the Hawaiian Islands.

Escalation is

There has been a tectonic shift in the world struggle. , the military power of which Stalin was so afraid, by its actions brought a great overseas power to the camp of opponents of the "axis" Berlin-Tokyo-Rome.

The self-blindness of the samurai, the criminal pride of Japanese militarism, turned events in such a way that, standing on the edge of the abyss, Russian Federation a great ally appeared. The rapidly expanding U.S. military has so far served 1.7 million people, but that figure has grown inexorably. The US Navy had 6 aircraft carriers, 17 battleships, 36 cruisers, 220 destroyers, 114 submarines, in the US Air Force - 13 thousand aircraft. But a significant part of the American military was chained to the Atlantic. Actually on pacific ocean The Japanese aggressor was opposed by the joint forces of the Americans, British and Dutch - 22 divisions (400 thousand people), about 1.4 thousand aircraft, 4 aircraft carriers with 280 aircraft, 11 battleships, 35 cruisers, 100 destroyers, 86 submarines.

Escalation is

When Hitler learned of the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, his delight was genuine. Now the Japanese will completely tie the United States in the Pacific and the Americans will not be up to the European theater of wars. Great Britain will be weakened by Far East and on the eastern approaches to India. America and England unable to help an isolated Republic of Germany and Japan Russian Federation. The Wehrmacht has absolutely free hands to do whatever it wants with its opponent.

Escalation is

The United States has entered the world struggle. Roosevelt sent to congressional military budget of 109 billion dollars - no one, anywhere, has ever spent so much money on military needs in a year. Boeing began to prepare for the release of the B-17 ("Flying Fortress"), and later - the B-29 ("Super Fortress"); Consolidated produced the B-24 (Liberator) bomber; organization "North American" - P-51 ("Mustang"). On the evening of the first day of 1942, F. Roosevelt, W. Churchill, USSR Ambassador M.M. Litvinov and Chinese Ambassador T. Sung signed a document in Roosevelt's office called the Declaration of the United Nations. This is how the anti-Hitler coalition was formed.

Escalation is

And the Japanese continued their phenomenal streak of victories throughout the first months of 1942. They landed in Borneo and continued to spread their influence over the Dutch East Indies, taking the city of Manado on Celebes by airborne assault. A few days later, they entered the Philippine capital of Manila, launched an offensive against American troops on Bataan and attacked Rabaul, a strategically located British base in the Bismarck archipelago. In Malaya, British troops left Kuala Lumpur. All these reports filled the German leadership with delight. They weren't wrong. The Wehrmacht received the necessary time to recover from the Battle of Moscow and decide the fate of the war against the USSR in a carefully prepared summer campaign.

Escalation is

Escalation is

Escalation of the Chechen war 1994-1996

First Chechen War- military conflict between Russia and the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria, which took place mainly on the territory of Chechnya in period from 1994 to 1996. The result of the conflict was the victory of the Chechen armed forces and the withdrawal Russian troops, mass destruction, casualties and the preservation of Chechnya's independence.

Escalation is

Escalation is

The Chechen Republic withdrew from the USSR following the withdrawal procedure and the fundamental law of the state of the USSR. However, despite this, and the fact that the governments of the USSR, the RSFSR recognized and approved these actions, it decided not to take into account the norms of international law and its own. Recovering from political crisis in the country since the end of 1993, the Russian special services are beginning to exercise increasing influence on the top leadership of the state, and begin to actively intervene in the affairs independent states neighbors (former republics of the USSR). With regard to the Chechen Republic, an attempt is being made to annex it to the Russian Federation.

Escalation is

Escalation is

A transport and financial blockade of Chechnya was established, which led to the collapse of the Chechen economy and the rapid impoverishment of the Chechen population. After that, the Russian special services began an operation to incite an internal Chechen armed conflict. The forces of the anti-Dudaev opposition were trained at Russian military bases and supplied with weapons. However, although the anti-Dudaev forces accepted Russian help, their leaders stated that the armed confrontation in Chechnya was an internal Chechen affair and in the event of Russian military intervention they would forget their contradictions and, together with Dudayev, would defend Chechen independence.

Inciting a fratricidal war, moreover, did not fit into the mentality of the Chechen people and contradicted their national traditions, therefore, despite the military assistance from Moscow and the passionate desire of the leaders of the Chechen opposition to seize power in Grozny on Russian bayonets, the armed confrontation between the Chechens did not reached the desired level of intensity, and the Russian leadership decided on the need for its own military operation in Chechnya, which turned into a difficult task given the fact that the Soviet army a significant military arsenal was left in the Chechen Republic (42 tanks, 90 other armored vehicles, 150 guns, 18 Grad installations, several training aircraft, anti-aircraft, missile and portable air defense systems, a huge amount of anti-tank weapons, small arms and ammunition for it) . The Chechens also created their own regular army and started release own machine gun - "Borzoi".

Escalation is

Escalation of Conflicts in the Middle East: Iran and Afghanistan (1977-1980)

1. Iran. The relatively successful actions of American diplomacy in the Far East were crossed out by the losses that the United States suffered in the Middle East. Washington's main partner in this part of the world was Iran. The country was ruled by Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi, who in the 1960s and 1970s carried out a series of reforms to economic modernization Iran, and also took measures to limit the influence of religious leaders, in particular, expelling R. Khomeini from the country. Not having received support for his reforms in the requested volume in the West, the shah turned to the USSR.

However, the "oil shock" of 1973-1974. gave Iran the necessary resources to economic development- Iran was one of the largest suppliers of "oil" to the world markets. Tehran has developed an ambitious plan for the construction of prestigious facilities (nuclear power plants, the world's largest petrochemical plant, metallurgical plants). These programs exceeded the possibilities and needs of the country.

Escalation is

A course was taken to modernize the Iranian army. By the mid-1970s, arms purchases from the United States were absorbing $5-6 billion a year. Approximately the same amount in the second half of the 1960s were placed orders for weapons and military equipment in the UK, France and Italy. The Shah, with the support of the United States, achieved the transformation of Iran into a leading military power region. In 1969, Iran announced territorial claims to neighboring Arab countries and in 1971 occupied three islands in the Strait of Hormuz at the exit from the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean.

Escalation is

Following that, Tehran de facto established the Shatg al-Arab river on the border with Iraq, which led to the rupture of diplomatic relations with Iraq. In 1972, a conflict broke out between Iran and Iraq. Iran began to support the Kurdish opposition movement in Iraq. However, in 1975, Iranian-Iraqi relations were normalized, and Tehran stopped providing assistance to the Kurds. The United States and, considering Iran an ally, encouraged the Shah's government in its intention to play a leading role in the zone Persian Gulf.

Although the Carter administration did not approve of the repressive policy of the Shah inside the country, Washington valued partnership with Tehran, especially after the threat of the use of "oil weapons" by the Arab countries arose. Iran cooperated with the US and countries Western Europe in matters of stabilization of the energy carriers market. The rapprochement with the United States was accompanied by the penetration of American culture and way of life into Iran. This was in conflict with the national traditions of the Iranians, a conservative way of life, a mentality based on Islamic values. Westernization was accompanied by the arbitrariness of the authorities, corruption, a structural break in the economy, and a deterioration in the material situation of the population. This increased dissatisfaction. In 1978, a critical mass of anti-monarchist sentiments accumulated in the country. Spontaneous rallies and demonstrations began to take place everywhere. To suppress the speeches, they tried to use the forces of the police, special services and the army. Rumors about the torture and murder of arrested activists of anti-Shah speeches finally blew up the situation. On January 9, an uprising began in Tehran. The army was paralyzed and did not come to the aid of the government. On January 12, Tehran, captured by the rebels, announced the victory of the Islamic revolution in Iran. On January 16, 1979, the Shah, accompanied by his family members, left the country.

February 1, 1979 to Tehran from exile during France returned the great Ayatollah R. Khomeini. Now they began to call him "imam". He instructed his colleague Mohammed Bazargan to form an interim government. On April 1, 1979, the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI) was officially proclaimed.

On November 4, 1979, Iranian students broke into the US embassy in Tehran and took the American diplomats who were there as hostages. The protesters demanded "from Washington to extradite the Shah to Iran, who was in the United States. Their demands were supported by Iranian authorities. In reply the president J. Carter April 7, 1980 announced gap diplomatic relations with Iran. Sanctions were imposed against Tehran. J. Carter imposed a ban on import Iranian black gold and announced the freezing of Iranian assets (about $12 billion) in American banks. In May 1980, the countries of the European Community joined the sanctions against Iran.

The events in Tehran sparked a second "oil shock" related to concerns about a possible halt in the export of Iranian oil. black gold. Prices for oil from 12-13 dollars a day in 1974 soared to 36 and even 45 dollars on the free market in 1980. The second "oil shock" began a new economic downturn in the world, which lasted until 1981, and in some countries - until 1982

The international situation has become even more tense after the escalation of the conflict in Afghanistan. Throughout the late 1960s and early 1970s, Afghanistan was rocked by political crises. The situation in the country remained very tense when a coup d'état took place on July 17, 1973. King Zahir Shah, who was undergoing medical treatment in Italy, was declared deposed, and to authorities The King's brother Mohammed Daoud came to Kabul. The monarchy was abolished and the country proclaimed the Republic of Afghanistan. The new regime was soon recognized by the world community. Moscow greeted the coup with approval, since M. Daoud had long been known in the USSR, holding the post of prime minister of Afghanistan for many years.

In relations with the great powers, the new government continued the policy of balancing, without giving preference to any of them. Moscow increased economic and military assistance to Afghanistan, expanding its influence in the Afghan army and providing tacit support to the People's Democratic Political Party of Afghanistan. M. Daud's visit to the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics () in 1974 demonstrated the stability of Kabul's ties with Moscow, loan payments were deferred and new promises were made. Despite Daoud's gradual departure from the orientation towards the USSR, the USSR was three times superior to the United States in terms of the amount of assistance provided to Afghanistan. At the same time, Moscow supported the People's Democratic Army of Afghanistan (PDPA, which positioned itself as a local communist party), helping to unite its factions and pushing them to take decisive action against M. Daoud.

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On April 27, 1978, in Afghanistan, army officers - members and supporters of the PDPA - carried out a new coup d'état. M. Daoud and some of the ministers were killed. in the country passed to the PDPA, which declared the events of April 27 a "national democratic revolution". Afghanistan was renamed the Democratic Republic of Afghanistan (DRA). The Revolutionary Council, headed by general secretary Central Committee of the PDPA Nur Mohammed Taraki.

The USSR, followed by a number of other countries (about 50 in total) recognized the new regime. Relationship with Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (CCCP) based on the principles of "brotherhood and revolutionary solidarity" were proclaimed a priority in foreign policy DRA. In the first months after the April Revolution, a series of agreements and contracts was concluded between the USSR and the DRA in all areas of socio-economic, cultural and military-political cooperation, numerous advisers from the USSR arrived in the country. The semi-allied nature of Soviet-Afghan relations was enshrined in the Treaty of Friendship, Good Neighborliness and Cooperation term for 20 years, signed by N. M. Taraki and L. I. Brezhnev on December 5, 1978 in Moscow. provided for cooperation between the parties in the military field, but did not specifically stipulate the possibility of deploying the armed forces of one side on the territory of the other.

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However, a split soon occurred in the PDPA itself, as a result of which Hafizullah Amin came to power. Socio-economic reforms, carried out in the country by force and ill-conceived, as well as repressions, the number of victims of which, according to various estimates, may exceed a million people, led to a crisis. The government in Kabul began to lose influence in the provinces that came under control chiefs of local clans. The provincial authorities formed their own armed detachments capable of resisting the government army. By the end of 1979, the anti-government opposition, speaking under traditionalist Islamic slogans, controlled 18 of Afghanistan's 26 provinces. There was a threat of the fall of the Kabul government. Amin's positions fluctuated, especially since the USSR ceased to consider him as the most convenient figure for the implementation of socialist transformations in the country.

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The Afghan leadership repeatedly during 1978-1979. appealed to Moscow with a request for an increase in military assistance and the introduction of troops. However, the scenario for the introduction of troops was carried out differently than X. Amin expected. On December 27, 1979, contingents entered Afghanistan Soviet troops, with whom one of the previously exiled leaders of the PDPA, Babrak Karmal, arrived in Kabul from Moscow, whom it was decided in the USSR to nominate for the role of a new Afghan leader. By the forces of the Soviet special forces, the palace of X. Amin in Kabul was taken, and he himself was killed during the assault.

The intervention of the USSR in Afghan affairs met with condemnation. He was especially sharply criticized by the United States, and the countries of Western Europe. Moscow was condemned by the leaders of the leading Western European communist parties.

The most serious consequence of the Afghan events was the worsening of the international situation as a whole. In the United States, one suspects that Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (CCCP) preparing to break into the region Persian Gulf, to install control over its oil resources. Six days after the start of the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, January 3, 1980, the president J. Carter sent an appeal to the US Senate with a request to withdraw from ratification the signed in Vienna treaty SALT-2, which as a result was never ratified. Simultaneously, the US administration officially announced that it would remain within the limits agreed in Vienna if the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (CCCP) followed suit. The severity of the conflict was slightly smoothed out, but the détente came to an end. Tension began to increase.

On January 23, 1980, J. Carter delivered his annual State of the Union address, in which he announced a new foreign policy doctrine. The Persian Gulf region was declared a zone of US interests, for the protection of which the United States is ready to resort to the use of armed force. In accordance with the "Carter Doctrine", attempts by any power to establish its own over the Persian Gulf region were declared in advance by the American leadership an encroachment on important US interests. Washington has made clear its intention to "oppose such attempts in any way, including the use of military force". The ideologist of this doctrine was Z. Brzezinski, who managed to convince the president that the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (CCCP) was forming an "anti-American axis" in Asia within the USSR, India and Afghanistan. In response, it was proposed to create a "counter-axis" (USA-Pakistan-China-). The contradictions between Z. Brzezinski and Secretary of State S. Vance, who still considered the US priority to maintain constructive relations with the USSR, led to the resignation of S. Vance on April 2, 1980.

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In response to the Afghan events, Washington made changes in its approach to the military-political issues of world politics. Secret Presidential Directive No. 59 of July 25, 1980 outlined the main provisions of the "new nuclear strategy" of the United States. Their meaning was to return to the notion of the possibility of winning in nuclear war. The directive emphasized the old idea of ​​a counterforce strike, which in the new interpretation was to become a key element of "flexible response". The American side began to proceed from the need to demonstrate to the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (CCCP) the ability of the United States to withstand a prolonged nuclear conflict and win it.

The USSR and the USA had a distorted idea of ​​the intentions of the opposite side. The American administration believed that the invasion of Afghanistan meant Moscow's choice in favor of a global confrontation. The Soviet leadership was confident that the Afghan events, which, from its point of view, were of purely secondary, regional significance, served for Washington only as a pretext for resuming the global arms race, to which it had allegedly always been secretly striving.

Among the NATO countries there was no unity of assessments. Western European countries did not consider Moscow's intervention in Afghanistan an event of world significance. Detente was more important to them than to the United States. Understanding this, J. Carter constantly warned the European allies against the "erroneous belief in detente" and attempts to maintain constructive relations with Moscow. Western states Europe did not want to join the American sanctions against the USSR. In 1980, when the United States boycotted the Moscow Olympics, only European countries followed suit. Germany and Norway. But in the field of military-strategic relations, the West continued to follow the US line.

Escalation of the war in South Vietnam

On March 8, 1965, under cover of darkness, landing craft of the US Navy approached the shores of South Vietnam, from which landed Marines with artillery, tanks, rocket launchers and other military equipment. In the depths of the territory, helicopter landings were thrown out. Four years later, he admitted that the decision on the actual entry of the United States into the "big war" was made only on the basis of "an analysis of the situation."

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As the conflict of aggression escalated, American regular units were increasingly drawn into fighting. Any disguise and talk that the Americans allegedly help the Saigon authorities only with "advice" and "advisors" were discarded. Gradually, US troops began to play a major role in the fight against the national liberation movement in Indochina. If at the beginning of June 1965 the American Expeditionary Force in South Vietnam numbered 70 thousand people, then in 1968 it was already 550 thousand people.

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But neither the aggressor's army of more than half a million, nor the latest technology used on an unprecedented scale, nor the use of chemical weapons of warfare on large areas, nor the brutal bombardment broke the resistance of the South Vietnamese patriots. By the end of 1968, according to official American data, in South Vietnam, more than 30 thousand were killed and about 200 thousand American soldiers and officers were wounded.

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Washington was becoming more and more convinced that their adventure was doomed to failure. Opposition to the "dirty war" was growing and strengthening in the country, which covered all sections of American society, including members of the US Congress. This forced Washington to rethink its approach to the Vietnam War. In the summer of 1969, the reduction of the expeditionary force in South Vietnam began. The Americans began to "Vietnamize" the ongoing war.

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Such tactics of American imperialism stemmed from the "new policy" of the United States in Asia outlined by President Nixon in July 1969. He promised the American public that Washington would not make any new "commitments" in Asia, What american soldiers will not be used to suppress "internal uprisings" and that "Asians will decide their own affairs." With regard to the Vietnam War, the "new policy" meant the increase in the number, reorganization and modernization of the military-political machine of the Saigon regime, which assumed the main burden of the war with the South Vietnamese patriots. The US provided air and artillery cover for the Saigon troops, reducing US ground forces and thereby reducing their losses.

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Sources and links

interpretive.ru - National Historical Encyclopedia

en.wikipedia.org - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

uchebnik-online.com - Tutorials online

sbiblio.com - Library of educational and scientific literature

cosmomfk.ru - Bitter project

rosbo.ru - Business education in the Russian Federation

psyznaiyka.net - basics of psychology, general psychology, conflictology

usagressor.ru - American aggression

history-of-wars.ru - Military history of the Russian Federation

madrace.ru - Mad race. Course: Second World War

Encyclopedia of the investor. 2013 .

• Dictionary of foreign words of the Russian language - (English escalation) expansion, build-up (of armaments, etc.), gradual strengthening, spread (of a conflict, etc.), aggravation (of situations, etc.). Political Science: Dictionary Reference. comp. Prof. floor of sciences Sanzharevsky I.I.. 2010 ... Political science. Dictionary.
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Cheat sheet on conflictology Kuzmina Tatyana Vladimirovna

THE CONCEPT OF ESCALATION OF THE CONFLICT

THE CONCEPT OF ESCALATION OF THE CONFLICT

Escalation(from lat. scala - ladder) - this is the most intense emotional background and rapidly developing stage of conflict interaction.

Signs of escalation in conflict interaction

1. The cognitive or rational component decreases in the actions and behavior of the participants.

2. First place in interpersonal relationships opposing sides come out with a negative assessment of each other, perception excludes the integral content, emphasizing only negative traits opponent.

3. In connection with the decrease in the management of the situation of interaction, the emotional tension among the participants in the conflict increases.

4. Dominance of subjective attacks and criticism personality traits opponent instead of arguments and arguments in favor of supported interests.

At the stage of escalation, the main contradiction may no longer be the goals and interests of the subjects of conflict interaction, but personal contradictions. In this regard, other interests of the parties are manifested, which aggravate the atmosphere of the conflict. Any interests during escalation are maximally polarized, the participants completely reject the interests of the opposite side. For an increase in aggressiveness at this stage, there may be a loss of the true original subject of the contradiction. Therefore, the conflict situation ceases to depend on the reasons that prompted the participants to the conflict, and can develop even after a decrease in the value and significance of the original subject of the contradiction.

Escalation has the property of increasing the temporal and spatial characteristics of the conflict. The contradictions of the participants are becoming wider and deeper, the reasons for the collision are becoming more. The phase of conflict escalation is the most dangerous stage of the entire conflict situation, since it is at this time that an initially interpersonal conflict can develop into an intergroup one. This, in turn, leads to a variety of means used at the stage of open conflict.

Escalation has external and internal mechanisms that intensify the conflict. External mechanisms escalation lies in the ways and strategies of behavior of the warring parties. When behavioral actions coincide, the conflict is more intense, since the participants achieve different goals and interests in approximately equal ways.

Internal mechanisms escalations are based on the capabilities of the human psyche and brain. Features of the character of individuals, personal and social attitudes of participants in a conflict situation affect the reaction and functioning of a person in conditions of emotional tension and potential danger.