INTRODUCTION: THE SUBJECT AND METHOD OF STATISTICS

1. The subject of statistics

2. Tasks of statistics

3. Methods of statistics

4. Fundamentals of the organization of statistics

1. The subject of statistics

The word "statistics" is widely used in practice. But this word has a different meaning.

Statistics is a branch of knowledge, i.e. scientific discipline (statistical science) and, accordingly, academic discipline in educational institutions;

Statistics is a branch of practical activity aimed at collecting, processing, analyzing and publishing massive data on the phenomena and processes of public life;

Statistics is also called a set of digital information characterizing a phenomenon. public life or a combination of them. For example, marriage statistics, crop area statistics, etc.;

A statistic in mathematical statistics is a term applied to functions of the results of observations.

The word "statistics" comes from the word "status", which means a state, a state of affairs. It was used in the meaning of "political state", hence the Italian word "stato" - the state and "statista" - the connoisseur of the state. In the scientific literature, the word "statistics" came into use in the 18th century and was initially understood in the sense of "state science".

Statistics is a science that studies quantitatively quality content mass social events.

The above definition indicates 3 main features of the subject of statistics:

1) statistics studies public phenomena;

2) studies them with quantitative sides;

3) she studies massive social phenomena.

Statistics studies social phenomena, which means that it is a social science. This is due to the peculiarities of social phenomena, the laws of their development and methods of cognition. To learn the laws community development, it is necessary to collect and summarize the numerous facts of the life of society.

The phenomena of social life, along with the qualitative side, can be characterized from a quantitative side: by magnitude, degree of distribution, correlations of individual parts, changes in these characteristics over time.

In the definition of the subject of statistics, it is indicated that statistics characterizes mass phenomena, i.e. those that are not single, but consist of a set of facts, events, units. Statistics reveals the patterns of changes in these characteristics, which are manifested in the mass generalization of facts. Therefore, statistics deals with such concepts as aggregate, variation, varying features, statistical regularities, law big numbers . Consider the content of these categories.

Population- this is a mass of individual units of the same type, united by a single qualitative basis, but differing from each other in a number of ways.

For example, the population will be the population of a country, which consists of individuals who differ in gender, age, and many other characteristics. At the same time, this aggregate is united in the sense that it consists of the inhabitants of a given country.

sign- a distinctive feature, property, quality inherent in the unit of the population.

Qualitative sign (attributive)- the meaning is expressed in the form of concepts, names. For example, nationality, gender, profession.

Quantitative sign– values ​​are quantified. Quantitative signs are:

a) discrete- take on certain, fixed values, for example, the number of pieces of equipment;

b) continuous- accept arbitrarily little different values ​​from each other, for example, weight, cost of production.

Factor signs are independent features that affect other related features.

Effective signs- These are dependent signs that change under the influence of factor signs.

Variation - these are differences in the values ​​of a particular attribute in individual units included in this population. It arises as a result of the fact that the individual values ​​of the attribute are formed under the combined influence of various factors (conditions), which are combined differently in each individual case.

Varying signs are called those that take on different values ​​(qualitative or quantitative) for individual units of the population.

The value of this feature for individual units of the population is called option.

Obtaining generalizing characteristics of mass social phenomena, statistics seeks to identify with their help certain patterns. It can be:

Patterns of development (dynamics) of phenomena. Thus, statistics show that the population of the Earth is growing from year to year.

Patterns of change in the structure of phenomena. Thus, from statistical materials we see that in Russia the proportion of the urban population in their total number is growing.

Patterns of distribution of units within the population. Such patterns can be found in the distribution of the population by age.

Patterns of connected change of different varying features in the aggregate. So, by distributing workers of a certain profession and qualification by length of service, one can notice a regular change in labor productivity.

In generalizing statistical indicators calculated on the basis of mass observation, the consequences generated by individual, random for the entire mass of units causes are smoothed out, and the consequences are clearly manifested due to the causes common to all units of the population. This shows the action law of large numbers.

The goal of every science is the knowledge of certain general patterns, allowing to foresee the course of phenomena and choose rational ways of behavior in real typical situations. This also applies to statistics - one of the main disciplines in the system economic education and the most important for those who have chosen statistics as their profession.

The history of the development of mankind has shown that without statistical data it is impossible to manage the state and the development of individual industries and sectors of the economy, to ensure optimal proportions between them. The need to collect and summarize a lot of data about the country's population, enterprises, banks, farms, etc. led to the emergence of special statistical services - institutions of state statistics. Depending on the industry for which the collection, processing and analysis is organized statistical information, distinguish between statistics of population, industry, Agriculture, capital construction, finance, etc.

Statistics are needed both for the enterprise and for the country. Statistical methods make it possible to develop a firm's strategy based on forecasting the dynamics of key indicators and the relationships between them. Important for the success of the company are statistical methods control and analysis of product quality. The dynamics of macroeconomic indicators provides a basis for the development long-term plans development of the economy as a whole, changes in production efficiency, etc.

Despite the diversity of applications of statistics, there are common methods statistical work, which should be guided always and everywhere. This course covers general rules collection, processing and analysis of statistical data.

The word "statistics" is used in several senses: primarily as a synonym for the word "data". For example, you can say: "Ukraine fertility statistics" or "Ukraine fertility data", which is the same thing.

statistics called the branch of knowledge that combines the principles and methods of working with numerical data, or the branch of practical activity aimed at collecting, processing, analyzing and interpreting numerical data characterizing mass phenomena.

The word statistics comes from Latin word status - state, state of affairs. Initially, it was used in the meaning of "political state". From here came the Italian word stato - the state and statista - an expert on the state. The word “statistics” came into scientific use in the 18th century and was originally used in the meaning of “state science”.

Historically, the development of statistics was associated with the development of states, with the needs government controlled. Economic and military needs already in the ancient period of human development required the availability of data on the population, its composition, and property status. For the purpose of taxation, population censuses were organized, land records were carried out, etc.

The first works of this kind were noted even in holy books different peoples. In the ancient world, registration of births was organized: young people who reached the age of 18 were included in the lists of those liable for military service, and upon reaching 20 years of age - in the lists of full-fledged citizens. Land cadastres were compiled, in which information was entered on buildings, slaves, livestock, inventory, and income received. State descriptions appeared. Much credit for this belongs to the Greek philosopher Aristotle (384-322 BC). He compiled a description of 157 cities and states of his time.

The decision to conduct a census was made at a meeting of the Great Royal Council on Christmas Day 1085. Representatives of the king responsible for conducting the census were immediately sent to all English counties. In each county, special meetings were called, which were an expanded version of the county benches. They consisted of: the sheriff, the barons and their knights, who have land holdings in the given county, members of the judicial colleges of each hundred, as well as the priest, the headman and six villans from each village. These meetings were called upon to confirm with an oath the information that was within the scope of the census, and also, possibly, to resolve emerging land disputes. In addition, data on land holdings in each hundred were recorded by commissions formed from the landowners of this hundred. So, in Cambridgeshire, the commission of the hundred included Anglo-Saxons and Normans in equal shares, holding land on the territory of the hundred.

The census was completed by the end of 1086 and its results in the form of a huge array of lists and reports were presented to the king. Later they were kept in the treasury of the English kingdom in Winchester. In addition, already by 1088, on the basis of this documentation, two volumes of the Domesday Book were compiled, which included in a compact form the most important information obtained as a result of the census, sorted by counties.

The names of the owners of the estate on the date of the census and in 1066;

Names of other holders of the estate, if the owner transferred it to conditional holding;

Area of ​​arable land;

Number of arable brigades (measured by teams of eight bulls) on the owner's dominal lands and on peasant lands;

The number of peasants of various categories (villans, cottarii, serfs, freemen and sokmen) living on the territory of the estate;

The size of pastures, meadows and forests belonging to the estate;

Number of mills and places for fishing;

Monetary valuation of the estate's economy as of the date of the census and for 1066;

The size of the allotments of free peasants and sokmen within the boundaries of the estate as of the date of the census and for 1066;

Potential to increase the productivity of the estate.

The list of questions submitted for the census demonstrates the desire of the king to record and evaluate possible sources of income for the treasury. In particular, castles and other buildings not directly related to economic activity were not included in the scope of the census. Also, the Domesday Book does not contain data on the size of the feudal obligations of the holders of estates to the king.

Rice. 3. Detail of a 12th-century tapestry. "Death of King Harold II", 1066.

Over time, the collection of data on mass social phenomena has acquired a regular character. From the middle of the XIX century. the first rules for population censuses were developed and the regularity of their conduct in developed countries began.

To coordinate the development of statistics, international statistical congresses began to be held, and in 1885 an international statistical institute was founded, which still exists today. For the first time, the teaching of statistics began at German universities in the second half of the 18th century. At present, international organizations and state statistics of each individual country engaged in the collection, transformation, comparison, interpretation of socio-economic data. Methods of work have developed that continue the traditions of state studies.

Today it is difficult to find an area where statistics would not be applied. Statistics are needed to calculate insurance rates, assess financial and business risks; it is used in the work of an auditor, in setting up management accounting in a company, in monitoring and analyzing product quality, in medicine, sports, and marketing.

When studying different objects, of course, are used various methods. However, there are some general principles and methods of statistical work. English extras J.E. Yul and M.J. Kendall notes: “Regardless of the branch of knowledge in which numerical data is obtained, they have certain properties that may require a special kind of identification to identify them. scientific method processing. The latter is known as the statistical method or, in short, statistics."

Each science has significant specific features that distinguish it from other sciences and give it the right to independent existence as a special branch of knowledge. The main feature of any science lies in the subject of knowledge, in the principles and methods of its study, which together form its methodology.

The subject of statistics is the study of the quantitative side of mass social phenomena in inseparable connection with their qualitative side, or their content, in the specific conditions of place and time.

Statistics studies its subject with the help of certain categories, i.e. concepts that reflect the most general and essential properties, signs, connections and relationships of objects and phenomena of the objective world.

There are five such basic concepts in statistics.

1. Population - this is a set of socio-economic objects or phenomena of social life, united by some qualitative basis, a common connection, but differing from each other in individual features. Such, for example, are the totality of families, the totality of enterprises, organizations, firms, etc.

Sets can be homogeneous and heterogeneous.

A set is called homogeneous if one or more of the studied features of its objects are common to all units.

The totality of events different type, is considered heterogeneous.

2. Population unit - this is the primary element of the statistical population, which is the carrier of the signs to be registered, and the basis of the account maintained during the survey.

3. sign - this is a qualitative feature of the unit of the population. By the nature of the display of the properties of the units of the studied population, the signs are divided into two main groups:

Signs that have a direct quantitative expression, for example, age, work experience, average earnings, etc. They can be discrete and continuous;

Signs that do not have a direct quantitative expression. In this case, individual units of the population differ in their content. For example, professions differ in the nature of work: a teacher, a carpenter, a seamstress, etc. these features are usually referred to as attributive.

A feature of statistical research is that it studies only variable signs, i.e. signs that take on different values ​​or have different quantitative levels for individual units of the population.

Variation- this is a change ("fluctuation") of the value or value of the attribute during the transition from one unit of the population to another.

4. statistic - this is a concept that reflects the quantitative characteristics (sizes) of the ratio of signs of social phenomena. The statistics can be voluminous(population) and calculated (average age). They can be planned, reporting and predictive.

5. System statistical indicators is a set of statistical indicators that reflects the relationships that objectively exist between phenomena. Each socio-economic formation is characterized by a certain system of interconnection of social phenomena.

The system of statistical indicators covers all aspects of society at various levels: the macro level (country, region) and the micro level (enterprise, family).

Statistical indicator systems have the following features:

They are of a historical nature - the living conditions of the population are changing, the systems of statistical indicators are also changing;

The methodology for calculating statistical indicators is constantly being improved.

Statistics studies its subject with the help of its specific method.

Statistics method - this is a whole set of techniques, using which statistics explores its subject. It includes three groups of methods proper, the method of mass observations, the method of groupings and the method of generalizing indicators.

- statistical observation consists in the collection of primary statistical material, in the scientifically organized registration of all significant facts related to the object under consideration. This is the first stage of any statistical study;

- grouping method makes it possible to systematize and classify all the facts collected as a result of mass statistical observation. This is the second stage of the statistical study,

- summarizing method allows you to characterize the phenomena and processes under study using statistics– absolute, relative and average. At this stage of the statistical study, the relationships and scales of phenomena are identified, the patterns of their development are determined, and predictive estimates are made.

The cognitive value of statistics is as follows.

1. Statistics provides a digital and meaningful coverage of the phenomena and processes under study, serves as the most reliable way to assess reality;

2. Statistics gives probative force to economic conclusions, allows you to check various statements, individual theoretical positions;

3. Statistics has the ability to reveal the relationship between phenomena, to show their specific form and strength;

4. Statistics is the first to discover new phenomena, processes and patterns, gives their quantitative and qualitative characteristics.

Currently, the term "statistics" is used in various meanings.

Statistics- this is a social science that studies the phenomena and processes of social life, it reveals the laws of the emergence and development of these phenomena and their relationship. In order to study statistical science, it is necessary to have an understanding of the subject of its study and to know what scientific principles underlying these phenomena.

Statistics- this is a particularly important science, that is, a branch of knowledge that studies all phenomena from the life of society from a quantitative side.

Translated from Latin, the word "status" means a certain state of affairs. The term "statistics" was first used by the German scientist G. Achenwahl in 1749, in his book on state studies.

Statistics is currently understood in three meanings:

1) statistical science- all practical human activities in the collection, processing, accumulation and analysis of digital data that characterize education, the country's economy, its culture and other vital phenomena in the life of society;

2) statistics- a science that develops technical provisions and methods used by statistical practice.

There is a close relationship between statistical science and statistical practice. Statistical practice applies the rules that statistical science has developed, but at the same time, statistical science relies on the materials that have been obtained by statistical practice, generalizes its experience and develops its new provisions based on all this;

3) presented by the enterprise, organization statistical data in the form of financial statements, they are called statistics, and data that are published in directories, periodicals, and collections can also be used, they are the result of statistical work.

Statistics is a tool of knowledge. Statistics features:

1) statistics are reported in quantitative terms;

2) statistical science is interested in the conclusions drawn as a result of the analysis of the collected and processed numerical data;

3) the state of the phenomenon under study at a certain stage of its development under specific conditions of place and time is reflected by statistical data.

2. History and features of the development of statistical science

Statistics has a long history and its roots go back to ancient times.

The need for the emergence of statistical practice is associated with the formation of states, that is, in order to form a state, it was necessary to collect information about the availability of land, the number of people living on this land, their property status, and many other data. A similar accounting was carried out several millennia ago in countries such as China. Ancient Rome and Egypt.

The collection of statistical data began from the earliest antiquity. And the later period includes the processing and analysis of statistical data, that is, the emergence of statistics as a science.

founders English school political arithmetics were D. Graunt (1620-1674), E. Halley (1656-1742) and W. Petty (1623-1687). Two directions prevailed in their works: demographic with an emphasis on life insurance issues by D. Graunt and E. Halley and statistical and economic by V. Petty D. Graunt for the first time discovered the patterns of mass social phenomena and showed how to process and analyze multiple primary material . He first attempted to construct a mortality table for the population. E. Halley, the famous English astronomer, put forward the idea of ​​the law of large numbers and applied methods for eliminating random deviations.

V. Petty dedicated a number of scientific works. In them, he sought to specifically assess this or that phenomenon, despite the obvious lack of numerical data.

Political arithmeticians sought to characterize the state and development of society in figures, to reveal the patterns of development of social phenomena, manifested in the mass material. The goals and objectives that these scientists set themselves are close to the modern understanding of the essence of statistics.

In the first half of the XIX century. a third direction of statistical science arose - statistical and mathematical. A special contribution to the development of this direction was made by the statistician A. Quetelet (1796-1874). He called statistics social physics, that is, the science that studies the laws public system using quantitative methods. He substantiated the idea of ​​using patterns, identified from the mass of cases, as the most important tool for understanding the objective world.

A significant contribution to the development of statistics was made by the English scientists F. Galton (1822-1911) and K. Pearson (1857-1936). F. Galton became seriously interested in the problem of heredity, to the analysis of which he soon applied statistical methods.

The most famous scientists of the XX century. in the field of statistics in the West is R. Fisher (1890-1962). He worked for half a century. Many of his studies have had a significant impact on modern statistics.

In Rus' during the X-XII centuries. collected information closely related to taxation.

During the period of Petrine reforms, almost all spheres of the country's public life were affected. They demanded more accurate statistics concerning: bread prices; registration of plants and factories newly created; volumes of foreign trade; number of cities and registration of the urban population.

In connection with the rapid development of the descriptive direction in Russia, the formation of statistical science took place. The most prominent representatives of the descriptive school should be called such scientists as I. K. Kirillov (1689-1737), M. V. Lo

Monosov (1711-1765), V. N. Tatishchev (1686-1750), K. F. German (1767-1838).

The creative work of I. K. Kirillov is one of the very first systematized economic and geographical descriptions in Russia.

The geographer made a great contribution to the development of statistical science. historian V. N. Tatishchev, he developed a detailed program in order to be able to obtain the information necessary to compile the geography of Russia with its most complete economic description.

M. V. Lomonosov made a special contribution to statistical science. Written in 1755, the book “A Word of Commendation to Emperor Peter the Great” gave an assessment of the Peter's revision. In his writings, he considered a number of issues directly related to the population, finances, natural resources and much more.

The special merit of M. V. Lomonosov is considered to be the improvement of the survey program and the preparation of data that would characterize the geography, population, economy of the country in agriculture, trade, industry, transport, etc. Initially, this program was developed by V. N. Tatishchev to create Russian Atlas.

Under the program, survey forms were sent to cities and counties. The survey materials were received by the academy for a long time, and were processed only after the death of M.V. Lomonosov.

IN early XIX V. a number of major works on the theory of statistics. In the book “The General Theory of Statistics. For those who teach this science ”K. F. Herman outlined the main provisions that reveal statistics as a science. In the history of the development of statistics, a large role belongs to the works of K. I. Arseniev (1789-1856), he believed that statistics is able to give an adequate description of the life of the state.

D.P. Zhuravsky (1810-1856) owned a systematic presentation of the foundations of the theoretical basis of statistics as a science, he revealed the principle of unity of quantitative and qualitative analysis.

A characteristic feature of the representatives academic school statistics was the desire to replace the study of the state with the study of society. The founders of this school were E. Yu. Yanson (1835-1893), A. I. Chuprov (1842-1908).

A. A. Chuprov (1874-1926), N. A. Kablukov (1849-1919) and A. A. Kaufman (1864-1919). Representatives of academic statistics have had a great positive impact on the development of statistical science in Russia and on the work of statistical bodies. By the beginning of the XX century. Russia has become one of the recognized centers of scientific statistical thought. The works of Russian mathematicians P.P. Chebyshev (1821–1894), A.A. ).

The historical experience of Soviet statistics as a science was summarized in the works of V.I. Khotimsky (1892-1937), V. S. Nemchinov (1894-1964), V. N. Starovsky (1905-1975), A. Ya. Boyarsky (1906-1985), B. S. Yastremsky (1877-1962), L. V. Nekrash (1886-1949) and other scientists. A significant contribution to the theory of the index method was made by scientists S. M. Yugenberg, V. E. Adamov, G. I. Baklanov, L. S. Kazints, I. G. Venetsky and others.

Currently in Russian Federation work is underway to improve and transfer the statistical methodology to the system of accounting and statistics accepted in international practice in accordance with the requirements of the development of a market economy.

3. Statistical bodies in the Russian Federation

At present, the central body of the unified centralized system state statistics is State Committee of the Russian Federation for Statistics (Goskomstat of Russia) is a federal executive body.

The unified system of state statistics of the Russian Federation under the State Statistics Committee of Russia is made up of bodies in the republics, autonomous regions and districts, territories, cities and districts, as well as organizations and institutions subordinate to them.

The Main Interregional Center for Processing and Dissemination of Statistical Information has powerful computing resources. This center is necessary for processing statistical data coming from the regions.

The statistical standards of the Russian Federation, established by the State Statistics Committee of Russia, are the forms and methods for collecting and processing statistical data, the methodology for calculating statistical indicators.

The main activities of the State Statistics Committee is the development of federal statistical programs financed from the state budget.

The main tasks of the State Statistics Committee:

1) coordination of statistical activities in the state;

2) development of a statistical methodology that will meet the needs of society at a certain stage and international standards;

3) provision of official statistical information to the President, the Government, the public, the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation, federal executive authorities, international and other organizations , statistics of construction and fixed assets, statistics environment and agriculture, price and finance statistics, population statistics and a number of others by sectors of the economy and social sphere. In accordance with federal programs, certain types of statistical work are carried out not only by the State Statistics Committee of Russia, but also by other government bodies: the Bank of Russia, the Ministry of Education of Russia, the Ministry of Finance of Russia, the Ministry of Labor of Russia, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and others (the total number of ministries and departments is more than 200).

4. The subject of studying statistics

Any science has specific features that distinguish it from other sciences and give it the right to independent existence. In the subject of knowledge, in the principles and methods of studying science, which together form its methodology, lies the main feature of each science.

Subject statistical science are:

1) mass socio-economic phenomena of life;

2) the quantitative side of these phenomena in the specific conditions of place and time.

By means of statistical indicators, statistics studies all the phenomena and processes occurring in the life of society.

Quantification of the property of the object under study is a statistic. Depending on the function, statistical indicators can be divided into: analytical indicators, accounting and estimated indicators.

Analytical indicators are used to analyze statistical information and characterize the peculiarity of the development of the phenomena under study: the rate of development in time, the typicality of a trait, the ratio of its individual parts, the measure of distribution in space, etc. Relative and average values, indicators of variation and dynamics, tightness communications and many others are used in statistical science as analytical indicators.

Accounting and estimated indicators- this is a statistical characteristic of the size of qualitatively defined socio-economic phenomena in specific conditions of place and time.

Accounting and evaluation indicators can reflect the volume of their distribution in space or the levels of development achieved at certain points.

In statistics, signs can be expressed in semantic concepts and numerical values.

attributive it is customary to call signs that are expressed by semantic concepts, for example, the gender of a person can be attributed to an attributive sign - a man and a woman. If the attribute features take one of the two opposite meanings, they are called alternatives.

quantitative it is customary to call signs that are expressed by numerical values, for example, wages received, age, income received, work experience.

Varying name signs that take on different values ​​for individual units of the phenomenon under study. The value of a variable attribute for individual units of the phenomenon under study is called option.

In a statistical study, signs are divided into:

1) basic - determine the main (main) content of the object under study;

2) secondary - these are signs that are not directly related to their main content.

Studying its subject, statistical science forms statistical aggregates.

The set of units united in accordance with the task of the study as a qualitative single basis is called statistical aggregate.

population unit called the primary element of the statistical population. The unit of the population is the carrier of the signs to be registered, and the basis of the account maintained during the survey.

1) volumetric (population);

2) calculated (average values);

3) planned;

4) reporting;

5) predictive.

Statistical indicators must be distinguished from the concept of "statistical data", since statistical data are specific numerical values ​​​​of statistical indicators. Statistical data depend on the specific conditions of place and time and are defined as quantitative and qualitative.

Based on the fundamentals economic theory statistics enriches the economic sciences with the facts that it receives as a result of statistical research.

5. Statistics method

In historical conditionality, statistics studies the dynamics of socio-economic phenomena.

Statistical methodology are a variety of methods. used to study their subject.

At present, knowledge of statistics is necessary for every specialist in order to make decisions in the conditions of stochastics, to analyze the elements of a market economy.

Statistics is based on the dialectical categories of the accidental and the necessary, the individual and the mass, the individual and the general, the qualitative and the quantitative.

According to the dialectical method of cognition, social phenomena and processes occurring in the social life of the country are considered in development, interconnection and causality. Knowledge of the laws of social development gives us the foundation for the correct interpretation of phenomena subject to statistical research, and also helps us choose the appropriate methodology for their study and analysis.

The main stages of economic and statistical research.

Stage 1: with the help of mass scientifically organized observation, primary information about individual facts (units) of the phenomenon under study is obtained.

The information collected in the course of mass observation is the source material for statistical generalization, for obtaining objective conclusions about the phenomenon under study.

In order to get rid of the influence of random causes and to establish character traits of the object under study, it is necessary to obtain information about a sufficiently large number of units.

Stage 2: this is a grouping and summary of materials, which represent the division of the entire mass of units into homogeneous groups and subgroups, and the presentation of the results in the form of statistical tables. In order to single out units of different composition from the composition of all cases, to show the features of phenomena, it is necessary to use grouping.

After grouping, you need to summarize the observational data that were obtained during the statistical study.

At the third final stage, the analysis of the statistical information obtained during the summary is carried out based on the use of generalizing statistical indicators: absolute and relative values, average values, statistical coefficients and indices.

Tabular and graphical methods are widely used in the study of statistical information.

6. Tasks of statistics in modern conditions

The growth of productive forces and scientific activity in Russia caused the development of statistics and its application in practice.

The main tasks of statistical science:

1) to study the transformations of socio-economic processes taking place in society;

2) to reveal the reserves of the efficiency of social production;

3) to provide legislative bodies with reliable information in a timely manner.

The term "statistics" is of Latin origin - the words stato (state) and status (political state) in 1746 gave the name to the new science. The well-known German scientist Gottfried Achenwal, who taught the course "State Studies" at the University of Gottingham, decided to change its name to "Statistics". It determined the fate new science, which was originally assigned the role of collecting information about the state and describing its attractions.

Currently, the term "statistics" is used in several meanings. Usually, statistics means a set of quantitative information about certain aspects of the socio-economic life of society.

Let us refer to the famous book of two brilliant writers I. Ilf and E. Petrov "The Twelve Chairs": "Statistics knows everything. The amount of arable land is accurately taken into account ... All citizens of both sexes are recorded in neat thick books ... It is known how much food the average citizen eats per year republic. It is known how much this average citizen drinks on average vodka, with an approximate indication of the snacks consumed. It is known how many hunters, ballerinas, revolving machines, dogs of all breeds, bicycles, monuments, girls, lighthouses and sewing machines in the country ... "

In the above quote, the most common area of ​​​​application of the term "statistics" is most correctly characterized - this is digital data, a certain information base, consisting of quantitative indicators.

Statistics is also called statistical accounting, which is a practical activity for the collection, summary, processing, analysis and publication of information about the phenomena of public life.

And finally, statistics is a special science that has its own subject and method of research. It is engaged in identifying patterns in the development of mass phenomena. The main criterion that a phenomenon must meet in order to be applied to it statistical methods, - mass character.

1.2.1. The subject of statistics

The subject of statistics as a social science, the quantitative side of mass social phenomena and processes is inextricably linked with the qualitative side. It is always necessary to remember that statistics studies not just quantity, but the quantity of a certain quality in specific conditions of place and time.

Why does statistics study only mass phenomena? Because only by considering the totality of individual facts, it is possible to identify patterns, relationships, the structure of the phenomenon. The law of large numbers is of great importance here. Under this name are several limit theorems, the general idea of ​​which boils down to the following: a regularity in the development of a phenomenon manifests itself only with a large number of observations. It is very difficult to separate regularity from chance if we consider only a single fact or a small number of them. When considering a set of single facts, random deviations cancel each other out, since in each individual case they can occur both in one direction and in the other, and then the pattern of development of the phenomenon becomes visible, which can be described by a certain mathematical function.

Let us explain what has been said with an example. Everyone knows that women live longer than men - this is an established statistical pattern. But you have the right to object: "My grandfather lived 20 years more than my grandmother!" The situation with your family is a single fact. For the population of living people as a whole, the rule is fulfilled - women live longer than men, and than big amount observations we have, the more obvious this fact will become. Or, for example, there is a statistical pattern regarding the sex of children born - the proportion of boys in the total number of children born is greater. And again, there are cases when only girls and no boys were born in the family. But for the population of living people as a whole, more boys are still born, and the greater the number of newborns we consider, the more clearly this trend manifests itself. So, in order to establish statistical regularities, it is necessary to investigate many single facts.

The theory of statistics is the science of the most general principles and rules for collecting, processing and analyzing information about mass processes and events in society.

Statistics studies social phenomena, therefore, statistical methods are used in almost all areas where phenomena are massive. In this regard, there are statistics of culture and art, medical statistics, criminal law statistics, education statistics, recreation and tourism statistics, agricultural statistics, trade statistics, statistics of enterprises and organizations, labor statistics, statistics of the standard of living of the population, statistics of consumption, statistics social security and social protection of the population, statistics of the housing market, statistics of science and innovation, statistics state budget, banking statistics, stock exchange statistics, securities statistics, price and inflation statistics, interest rate statistics, exchange rate statistics, investment statistics, foreign economic activity statistics, etc. The listed spheres of the socio-economic life of society are the objects of study of sectoral statistics, and the theory of statistics is their methodological basis.

Statistics considers the quantitative characteristics of mass social phenomena, such as the size of the phenomena, their ratios, average levels, etc. But the quantitative characteristics are analyzed in close connection with the qualitative certainty of the phenomenon. The most important requirement for information suitable for statistical analysis is the qualitative homogeneity of those single facts that form a statistical set. For example, the analyzed quantitative information should refer to enterprises of a particular industry located in a certain territory, information should cover the same period of time, etc.

However, the qualitative certainty of a phenomenon is important not only for the formation of homogeneous statistical aggregates. When analyzing the relationship of phenomena, the features under study must first be considered from their qualitative side: is it theoretically possible that there is a connection between them or not, since numerical data can be selected in such a way that the connection is confirmed purely mathematically, but in fact it is absent. Suppose that the collected quantitative data characterizing the height of a person and the size of the windows of his apartment, randomly turned out to be such that the calculated indicator of the connection showed its presence, although in fact there is no connection and, in principle, cannot be. Therefore, when conducting a statistical analysis, the qualitative side of phenomena is always considered.

So, statistics analyzes not "soulless" figures, but data arrays with qualitative certainty.

1.2.2. Method and tasks of statistics

When studying mass socio-economic phenomena and processes, statistics uses its own specific method. The process of statistical research can be conditionally divided into the following stages: observation, summary and grouping of the results of statistical observation, obtaining generalizing statistical indicators and their analysis.

Statistical observation is the first stage of any statistical research: a research hypothesis is developed, primary statistical information is collected in accordance with the scientifically based rules of its organization.

A summary and grouping of the results of observation is the second stage of a statistical study, at which the systematization of the collected primary information takes place.

The calculation of generalizing analytical indicators involves obtaining a whole range of statistical indicators that allow you to analyze the level and structure of phenomena, patterns in their development, the relationship between phenomena, their correlation, build models for predictive purposes. All calculations at the stage of statistical analysis are accompanied by an interpretation of the results obtained (otherwise, there is no point in conducting a study).

The techniques used in the process of statistical observation are the same for all statistical studies - be it trade statistics, banking statistics or tourism statistics - only the object of study changes, but the subject of study and the methods used remain unchanged.

From the foregoing, it follows that the tasks of statistical research include:

• obtaining generalizing characteristics of the studied statistical population, such as the volume of indicators, their ratios, average values, characteristics of variation, and other calculated indicators;
• identifying relationships between features;
• study of the patterns of development of phenomena in time and space;
• study of changes in the structure of phenomena;
• modeling and forecasting the development of socio-economic phenomena and processes.

1.2.3. Basic terms

The main terms of statistics, which are most often used, are: statistical population, unit of statistical population, sign and variants, variation, statistical indicator, system of statistical indicators, statistical regularity.

A statistical population is a set of units of a mass socio-economic phenomenon, homogeneous in terms of their qualitative essence and united on the basis of common features, the study of which is the goal of statistical research. For example, it can be a set of enterprises, a set of commercial banks, stock exchanges, a set of employees in insurance companies, etc.

The main requirement for the construction of a statistical population is homogeneity in terms of those features that form the basis of its formation. For example, if the profitability of small industrial enterprises in Russia is studied, then in the aggregate there should not be other enterprises, as well as enterprises with very low or extremely high profitability, which are isolated cases.

A statistical population that is homogeneous in one feature may be heterogeneous in others. For example, enterprises may differ in their belonging to different sub-sectors of industry, territories, the size of production assets, etc. working, etc.

A unit of a statistical population is a single case of manifestation of a mass social phenomenon, which is included as individual element into a statistical population and carrying information about those features that are studied in the course of the study. For example, when studying small business, a small industrial enterprise in Russia can be a unit of the population under study. At the same time, the same small enterprise can be a unit of other aggregates - the aggregate of small enterprises in Moscow or the aggregate of all industrial enterprises.

A sign is a property of the phenomenon under study, observed in units of a statistical population.

Signs are quantitative, attributive and alternative. Quantitative features include profitability, profit, the volume of production assets, the number of employees, etc., in other words, those features that have a quantitative expression. The values ​​of attributive features have not a quantitative, but a qualitative expression: education (higher, incomplete higher, secondary, secondary special), form of ownership (state, municipal, private). Alternative features include features that can take only two values: gender (male, female), relation of the object to the fact of insurance (insured, not insured), etc. Another type of alternative features is obtained when a certain value of a quantitative feature is specified and the set of units is divided into two groups: units with a feature value less than a given one, and units with a feature value greater than or equal to a given one. For example, when studying commercial banks, the attribute "authorized capital" can be made alternative: the size of the authorized capital is 10 billion rubles. and above, less than 10 billion rubles. (according to the principle "yes - no").

Variants are the values ​​that a feature can take.

Variation is a change in the values ​​of a feature during the transition from one unit of observation to another. If there were no variation in the values ​​of a feature, there would be no statistics, and it is the study of variation that is one of the main goals of statistical research.

A statistical indicator is a quantitative characteristic of the property of the phenomenon under study, related to specific conditions of place and time. Statistical indicators can be individual (for example, the profit of the Sibir enterprise in 2006 amounted to 120 million rubles), final (the total profit for the studied set of enterprises in 2006 is 1430 million rubles), analytical or calculated (for example, average or relative values).

The system of statistical indicators is a set of statistical indicators interconnected by a single goal of statistical research.

Systems of statistical indicators are created in order to characterize the phenomenon of social life from different angles, to give it comprehensive assessment. For example, the system of indicators of banks in the region includes the following main indicators: the number of banking institutions in the region; average number of branches created by one bank; the absolute value of banking assets; inflation rate; the value of real assets; volume of credit investments; the share of loans in assets, etc.

A statistical regularity is a common, recurring feature in the nature of changes in the values ​​of a feature in most units of a statistical population. Thus, an increase in profits as a result of an increase in advertising costs is characteristic of most enterprises; with the growth of net assets, the volume of credit investments in most commercial banks increases, etc.

It is precisely in order to establish a pattern in the development of a phenomenon that it is required a large number of observations in accordance with the operation of the law of large numbers (mass observation). The formation of the values ​​of the indicator for a separate unit of observation is influenced by regular and random factors. Causes of the same type that affect all units of observation create a pattern; causes that do not affect all units of observation form an accident.

Statistics is one of the oldest branches of knowledge that arose on the basis of economic accounting.

The term "statistics" comes from the Latin word Status, - the state, which came into use in Germany in the middle of the 18th century. Under the statistics meant a set of information about the state, about its attractions.

How the science of statistics began to be taught in 1749 by the German scientist Gottfried Achenwahl.

The development of statistics went in two directions:

1) descriptive school originated in Germany and was associated with a description of the sights of the state: territory, population, welfare of the state and citizens, etc. - without analysis of patterns and relationships between phenomena. The founder of the descriptive school was the German scientist Hermann Kontring (1606 - 1681).

2) "political arithmetic" originated in England and was focused on identifying, on the basis of a large number of observations, various patterns and the relationship of the studied phenomena. The founder of this school was William Petty (1623-1687).

The term "statistics" used in several values:complex academic disciplines; field of practice("statistical accounting"); collection of digital information characterizing the state of mass phenomena and processes of social life; statistical methods(including methods mathematical statistics) used to study socio-economic phenomena and processes.

Statistics as a science is complete system scientific disciplines Keywords: theory of statistics, economic statistics and its branches, socio-demographic statistics and its branches.

Theory of Statistics is the science of the most general principles and methods of statistical research of socio-economic phenomena. It develops the conceptual apparatus and the system of categories of statistical science, examines the methods of collecting, summarizing, summarizing and analyzing statistical data, that is, the general methodology for the statistical study of mass social processes.

The theory of statistics is the methodological basis of all sectoral statistics.

economic statistics- studies phenomena and processes in the field of economics, structure, proportions, interrelations of industries and "elements of social reproduction".

Statistics- this is a science that studies the quantitative side of mass socio-economic phenomena in the inseparable relationship of their qualitative side, as well as the quantitative expression of the patterns of development of processes in specific conditions of place and time.

The subject of statistics is the quantitative side of mass socio-economic phenomena and processes, which is studied inextricably with their qualitative side.

Tasks of statistics- improvement of the statistical information base based on the development of a system of statistical indicators and the introduction of state statistical standards in order to provide government bodies and other structures with statistical data;

Theoretical basis statistics are provisions socio-economic theory, who consider the laws of development of socio-economic phenomena, find out their nature and significance in the life of society. Based on the knowledge of the provisions of economic theory, statistics analyzes the specific forms of manifestation of categories, assesses the size of phenomena, and develops adequate methods for their study and analysis.

The study of statistics is based on a system of categories and concepts that reflect the most significant properties, signs, and the relationship of phenomena and processes.

Statistics method

Statistical methods:

- method of mass observations - collection of primary data on population units;

Summary and grouping consists in classification, generalization of the obtained primary data;

Methods for analyzing generalizing indicators make it possible to characterize the phenomenon under study using statistical values: absolute, relative and average in order to establish relationships and patterns of development of processes.

In accordance with Decree of the President of the Russian Federation of March 9, 2004 No. 314, the State Committee of the Russian Federation on Statistics (Goskomstat of Russia) was transformed into the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat). The area of ​​activity of Rosstat is determined by the Regulations on the Federal State Statistics Service.

Functions of Rosstat:

Adoption of normative legal acts in the field of state statistical activity;

Providing government bodies with official statistical information on socio-demographic, economic, ecological state countries;

Implementation of control in the field of state statistical activity.

Rosstat bodies are a three-level system with territorial bodies and subordinate organizations Federal Service. Rosstat manages the work of 75 territorial bodies of state statistics, which are in charge of statistical activities in the respective territories of the republics, territories, regions, autonomous districts and the autonomous region.

In addition, the Rosstat system includes:

HMC (Main Interregional Center for Processing and Dissemination of Statistical Information of the Federal State Statistics Service),

Research and Design Institute of Statistical Information System;

Research Institute for Problems of Socio-Economic Statistics, educational establishments(colleges and technical schools, training centers).

The collection and processing of statistical information can also be carried out by ministries and departments: the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Internal Affairs, etc. (the so-called departmental statistics).

All bodies of state statistics ensure the provision of official statistical information to state authorities of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation.

Until 2003, the All-Union Classification of Industries of the National Economy (OKONKh) was used to describe the structure of the Russian economy. Instead of OKONKh of the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia, the All-Russian Classifier of Types of Economic Activity (OKVED) was developed.

On the basis of OKVED codes, the types of activities of economic entities are identified in the process of their state registration and statistical accounting.

The study of statistical indicators makes it possible to give a generalized description of the volume and composition of the phenomenon, to identify and study statistical patterns. Such regularities are revealed during mass observation due to the operation of the law of large numbers.

The law of large numbers is an objective law according to which the simultaneous action of a large number of random factors leads to a result almost independently of each case.

Those. patterns appear only in the mass of phenomena when generalizing data on a sufficiently large number of units.

The subject of statistics is studied with the help of special techniques, methods and methods aimed at the quantitative study of mass public and social and economic phenomena and processes.

The use of specific methods in statistics is predetermined by the tasks set and depends on the initial information.

In the process of development of the science of statistics, its methods did not remain unchanged, but were enriched with new, more and more complex techniques.

Statistics method(or statistical methodology) is a set of techniques, rules and principles of statistical research of socio-economic phenomena, i.e. collecting information, processing it, calculating indicators and analyzing (evaluating) the data obtained.

Statistical methods:

The method of mass observations is the collection of primary data on population units.

Summary and grouping consists in classification, generalization of the obtained primary data.

Methods for analyzing generalizing indicators make it possible to characterize the phenomenon under study using statistical values: absolute, relative and average in order to establish relationships and patterns of development of processes.

In the process of statistical research, statistical methods are usually applied in a complex manner.

In statistics, as in any other science, mathematics is a means, an instrument of research.

The difference between mathematics and statistics lies in the fact that statistics receives quantitative characteristics of phenomena in their inextricable connection with the qualitative side. Mathematics explores the quantitative side of phenomena without regard to quality.

In higher mathematics, a section of mathematical statistics is distinguished, which develops mathematical methods, systematizes the processing and study of cost data for scientific and practical conclusions.